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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (7/16/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby: 

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

The most recent articles have been avoiding the Colorado Rockies at home for a few days now, but it is about that time to attack Coors Field. Drew Pomeranz is allowing 1.9 HR/9, and Peter Lambert is allowing 2.7 HR/9. Vegas has this game set at 14.5 total runs, and the Rockies are -130 favorites, giving the Giants an implied run total of 6.9 to the Rockies’ 7.8. On Monkey Knife Fight, either team can be used. In the last 15 days, Pomeranz has a 35% fly ball rate to Lambert’s 23%, as well as a 35% hard hit rate to Lambert’s 29%. For that reason, the recommendation for tonight’s MLB slate will be the Rockies. Begin at the leadoff spot with Charlie Blackmon. Blackmon only has 1 home run in his last 10 games, but at home this season, he is hitting .426 with 16 home runs, compared to .227 with 4 home runs away from Coors Field. In the last 15 days, Blackmon has an average exit velocity of 96 MPH and a hard hit rate of 45%. He gets a huge bump from hitting at home. Next, move down one spot to Trevor Story. Story, in the last 15 days, has an average batted ball distance of 245 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. He leads the team with 0.064 HR/AB, and his ISO and wOBA differentials are positive at 0.017 and 0.052 respectively. Story has 3 home runs in his last 10 games, and he is hitting over .300 with 12 home runs at home compared to .261 with 8 home runs away from Coors Field. Finally, round out the lineup with Nolan Arenado. Arenado is another Rockies’ batter that hits much better at home. In Coors Field, he is hitting .360 compared to .258 away from home. He enters tonight’s game with 0.096 ISO and 0.078 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, his fly ball rate is over 50%, which suggests home runs will come in Coors Field. This recommendation list may be obvious, but sometimes obvious is the direction to pursue. 


Recommended Batters: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado



Home Run Prop Bet:

Trevor Story (+195) – Colorado Rockies – SS 

Trevor Story has better advanced metrics than both Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado. This is basically the only reason that he is the recommendation on MyBookie. All three are worth consideration for a home run prop bet. 


PrizePicks Over/Under: 


Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.


*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

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