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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (8/12/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

The Arizona Diamondbacks are traveling to Colorado tonight to square off against the Colorado Rockies and Peter Lambert. Kenneth Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and Vegas is not confident about either pitcher’s ability to keep runs off the scoreboard, as the game is set at 14 total runs. The Rockies are slight betting favorites at -110, and this is a great game to target for home runs tonight on Monkey Knife Fight. Lambert is allowing 2.1 HR/9, and Kelly is allowing 1.5. Kelly has the higher fly ball rate at 42% and the higher hard hit rate at 40%, so take two Rockies and one Diamondback. Start with Trevor Story, as he leads the Rockies in HR/AB with 0.068, and he is expected to leadoff. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. In his last 10 games, that has translated to a .325 batting average with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs. Next, move down to Nolan Arenado. Arenado is averaging 0.057 HR/AB, and he is expected to hit fourth. Much like Story, he has been great over his last 10 games, hitting .361 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs. He is always better at home, sporting a .354 home batting average compared to a .264 away batting average. His average exit velocity on batted balls is down right now at 89 MPH, but his fly ball rate is over 50%, and his hard hit rate is still over 35%. Kelly is going to offer little in the way of resistance, and Arenado should start to find the ball with the middle of the barrel. Finally, round out this lineup with David Peralta. Peralta has great power splits tonight against the right-handed Lambert, as he enters tonight’s game with 0.102 ISO and 0.097 wOBA differentials. On the season, he is hitting 0.041 HR/AB, and he obviously gets a huge boost hitting in Coors Field. One of these three recommendations should find a way to get the job done. 


Recommended Batters: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, David Peralta



Home Run Prop Bet:

David Peralta (TBA) – Arizona Diamondbacks – OF

Both Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado are probably going to have very tight odds to hit a home run. David Peralta, on the other hand, is not known for his power, and he could fly under the radar. If his odds are wide enough (+300 or higher), he is worth the added risk. Hitting in Coors Field should greatly increase his slugging percentage and batting average. 


PrizePicks Over/Under:


Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.


*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

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