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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (8/13/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

The New York Yankees are at home tonight against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are scheduled to start John Means, while Domingo German will take the mound for the Yankees. Vegas has this game set at 10.5 total runs, and the Yankees are -295 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.8. The Orioles are only expected to score 3.8 runs, but German, over the last 15 days, is sporting a fly ball rate over 40% and a hard hit rate of 45%. Rostering one Oriole tonight on Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest is acceptable. That player should be Trey Mancini. Mancini is expected to hit second for the Orioles tonight, and he enters tonight’s game with 0.053 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 30%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. With 4 home runs over his last 10 games, Mancini has the most upside on the Orioles’ team. Means, in the last 15 days, has a fly ball rate over 80%. That is all bettors need to hear in order to target the Yankees at home tonight. First, Giovanny Urshela is a must roster. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .500 with 7 home runs and 14 RBIs. Do advanced metrics need to be stated? No. Okay, moving on. Aaron Judge has great upside tonight against the left-handed Means, and despite a series of poor performances, he is worth the recommendation. In his last 10 games, Judge has 1 home run and a .200 batting average, and his advanced metrics are rather poor. However, he enters tonight’s game with positive 0.109 ISO and 0.116 wOBA differentials. This matchup could be exactly what Judge needs to turn his game around. 


Recommended Batters: Giovanny Urshela, Aaron Judge, Trey Mancini



Home Run Prop Bet:

Giovanny Urshela (TBA) – New York Yankees – OF

Giovanny Urshela has +270 odds to hit a home run tonight, while Aaron Judge is +235. Urshela has much better advanced metrics, and he is hitting as well as anyone in the league. This is an easy bet recommendation. 


PrizePicks Over/Under:

Aaron Judge (OVER 9.5)

Aaron Judge has been struggling of recent, but he is better at home, and he gets a great matchup against a left-handed starting pitcher. If he struggles tonight, fantasy owners and bettors need to start reconsidering using him so frequently, but until then, bet the over.


*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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