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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (8/14/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

This is sort of a strange recommendation considering the Miami Marlins have the second worst stadium in the MLB for home runs, but it is worth it in order to attack Elieser Hernandez on a shorter six-game slate. Vegas has this game set at only 8 total runs and the Los Angeles Dodgers are -290 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.2. Hernandez is allowing 2.1 HR/9, and over the last 15 days, he is sporting a fly ball rate of 45%, as well as a hard hit rate over 40%. Monkey Knife Fight requires that bettors roster at least one player from the Miami Marlins’ lineup, but Clayton Kershaw, over the last 15 days, is sporting a fly ball rate over 50%, as well as a hard hit rate over 50%, so that might not be all that bad of a requirement. The first batter to roster is undoubtedly Joc Pederson. Pederson is hitting 0.071 HR/AB, and he enters tonight’s game with 0.184 ISO and 0.093 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. As an added bonus, he should leadoff for the Dodgers. Next, move down one spot in the batting order to Max Muncy. It is difficult to select between Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, and Corey Seager, but Muncy has been hitting the ball slightly harder than both Bellinger and Seager of recent. Over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 55%. That has translated to a batting average over .250 and 2 home runs in his last 10 games. Even in Miami, right-handed pitchers that struggle with fly balls are going to allow home runs to the Dodgers’ lineup. Finally, round out the roster with Starlin Castro. Castro is only hitting 0.025 HR/AB, but he enters tonight’s game with 0.048 ISO and 0.091 wOBA differentials, and his advanced metrics are decent. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. He is expected to hit fifth for the Marlins, and he does have minor home run upside, even against Kershaw. 

 

Recommended Batters: Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Starlin Castro

 

 

Home Run Prop Bet:

Joc Pederson (TBA) – Los Angeles Dodgers – OF

Joc Pederson has great advanced metrics, he hits right-handed pitching well, and he has the power to get the ball out of the larger Miami Marlins’ ballpark. Max Muncy is also worth consideration here, but Pederson is the recommendation tonight. 

 

PrizePicks Over/Under: 

N/A

Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.

 

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

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