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Jason’s Jacks – MLB Home Run Prop Bets 4/12/19

With The Grain Prop Bet:

Joc Pederson (+500) – Los Angeles Dodgers – OF

What is so special about Joc Pederson tonight? He gets a great matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers’ Corbin Burnes, who is currently sporting a 1.579 HR/9 ratio. It is no secret that Pederson has elite home run potential every time he faces off against a right-handed pitcher, especially considering his 0.188 ISO and 0.196 wOBA differentials. He is averaging 0.068 HR/AB so far this season. The Los Angeles Dodgers are allowing Pederson to leadoff, as well, which only increases his potential at-bats, which are, for us, potential home run opportunities. Over the last 15 days, Pederson has an average batted ball distance of 242 feet, which is up 15 feet from his 12-month average. He also has an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 98 MPH, which is up 5 MPH from his 12-month average. Perhaps most importantly, he is only hitting 34% of those batted balls on the ground. That leaves him with a 48% fly ball rate and 17% line drive rate. The weather should be around 70 degrees tonight in Los Angeles, and Pederson will look to add home run number 5 to his stat sheet.


Against The Grain Prop Bet:

Robinson Cano, Brandon Nimmo (+490, +420) – New York Mets – 2B, OF

Coming off a successful Rowdy Tellez recommendation from last night, I’m feeling good enough to offer a two-for-one deal on the New York Mets tonight! Both Robinson Cano and Brandon Nimmo will face off against a right-handed Kyle Wright for the Atlanta Braves. Though the sample size is not large enough for this statistic to carry too much weight, Wright is allowing 2.8 HR/9. Cano is sporting a 0.099 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and Nimmo is only 0.001 point lower in the same category. Both players are averaging 0.04 HR/AB, and the weather and humidity in Atlanta will be decent for home run potential. Over the last 15 days, Nimmo is leading the duo with an average batted ball distance of 226 feet to Cano’s 199 feet, and Nimmo is hitting the ball harder, as well, with a 93 MPH average batted ball exit velocity compared to Cano’s 91 MPH. Nimmo, unfortunately, is hitting more line drives than Cano, as Cano is hitting 42% fly balls to Nimmo’s 38%. Both players are sporting an average air time on batted balls of over three seconds, and either one, or both, of these power bats in the Mets’ lineup tonight could go yard. Be on the lookout for a double jack.


*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Joc Pederson, Robinson Cano, or Brandon Nimmo available, they will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*


Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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