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MLB DFS 7/16/19 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack 

Colorado Rockies

Here we go again. The Colorado Rockies continue to make up the “Chalk Stack.” They currently rank fifth in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 21st in home runs, and ninth in OPS through 94 games. Colorado has been elite at home, where they are hitting .309 with a .527 slugging percentage and a .898 OPS. They are averaging 6.7 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game through 48 home games, as well. The Rockies -128 favorites in a game set at 14.5 runs tonight, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 7.8 runs. 

Colorado gets a great matchup against Drew Pomeranz, who has struggled through 16 starts this season. In those starts, he owns a 2-9 record with a 6.42 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. He has also recorded a 4.60 xFIP and a 4.60 SIERA this season. Pomeranz has struggled with 36% fly ball and 23.9% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 37.1% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.4% soft hit rate this season, as well. Pomeranz does boast 25% strikeout and 9.1% swinging strike rates, though. He has been significantly worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .314 average with a .588 slugging percentage and a .412 wOBA. He has also given up a .280/.453/.339 line to left-handed batters, though. Furthermore, Pomeranz has been at his worst on the road, where he has allowed his opponents to hit for a .336/.697/.452 line in 2019. Most surprisingly, he owns 36.7% fly ball and 33.3% HR/FB rates on the road this season, and he will likely struggled with the thin air in Colorado. The Rockies are far and away the top cash stack on this slate tonight. 

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack 

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants have struggled offensively this season, ranking 21st in the MLB in runs scored, 27th in home runs, 29th in team batting average, and 28th in OPS. The Giants have featured a significantly better offense on the road, where they have recorded a .242 average with a .430 slugging percentage and a .739 OPS through 48 games. They are also averaging 5.3 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in those contests. San Francisco is a +118 underdog in a game set at 14.5 runs, but they still feature an implied run total of 6.9 runs tonight. 

The Giants get a great matchup against Peter Lambert tonight. He has only thrown in six starts this season, bubt he owns a 2-1 record with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 4.83 xFIP and a 4.99 SIERA in those starts. Lambert has held his opponents to a 30.4% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 29% HR/FB rate, as well. He has also struggled with a 42.3% hard hit rate to go along with an 11.5% soft hit rate this season. Lambert only owns 15% strikeout and 6.9% swinging strike rates in 2019. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, who have posted a .327 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a .444 wOBA against him. Right-handed batters also own a .290/.522/.360 line against him this season. Furthermore, Lambert has allowed a ridiculous .342/.750/.459 line at home this season. The Giants have found quite a bit of success recently, and that should happen once again in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB. 

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack 

Cleveland Indians 

The Cleveland Indians have featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the season. Through 92 games, they rank 20th in the MLB in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, while also ranking 21st in team batting average. They have been better on the road, and they boast a .238 average with a .409 slugging percentage and a .728 OPS through 47 games in Cleveland. They are also averaging 4.4 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game at home this season. The Indians are a -230 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 6.5 runs on this slate. 

Ryan Carpenter will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers. He has only thrown in eight starts this season, but he has struggled with a 1-5 record with an 8.36 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in those starts. He has also posted a 5.82 xFIP and a 5.50 SIERA in those games. Carpenter has also allowed his opponents to post 38.8% fly ball and 20.4% HR/FB rates. He has given up a 44.3% hard hit rate to go along with a 14.3% soft hit rate, as well. He only owns 14% strikeout and 7.5% swinging strike rates this season. Carpenter has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .359 average with a .692 slugging percentage and a .437 wOBA. He has also given up a .323/.581/.397 line to right-handed batters. Surprisingly, Carpenter has held his opponents to a .162/.378/.266 line on the road, but that has been in limited innings, and he’s due for major regression away from home. That’s likely to start tonight, and Cleveland will go overlooked because of the run total set in the Colorado/San Francisco game. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Jack Flaherty

Flaherty has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, posting a 4-6 record with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP through 18 starts. He has been better than that, though, postinga  4.09 xFIP and a 4.12 SIERA. Most importantly, he has been at his best at home, where he owns a 3.47 xFIP. His strikeout rate also increases to 28.4% in St. Louis. As if that isn’t enough, Flaherty is averaging nearly 10 more fantasy points at home than on the road. He’s currently a -175 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.9 runs. 

Flaherty gets a plus matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who don’t strikeout at a high rate, but feature a below average team wOBA on this slate. Flaherty has been against right-handed batters, holding them to a .216 average with a .402 slugging percentage and a .288 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .209/.414/.279 line at home in 2019. The Pirates inability to consistently produce on offense makes Flaherty one of the best options for his price tag on this slate. 

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Travis d’Arnaud

d’Arnaud has caught fire recently, posting a .444 average with a .917 slugging percentage and a 1.429 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 7 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 10 RBIs in those games, as well. d’Arnaud also boasts 47% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates to go along with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has recorded 0.067 wOBA and 0.137 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well. 

d’Arnaud gets a matchup against C.C. Sabathia, who has struggled with a 4.83 xFIP and a 4.71 SIERA through 14 starts. Sabathia has given up 40.5% fly ball and 18% HR/FB rates this season. He has also struggled with a 40.5% hard hit rate this season. He has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to post a .278 average with a .522 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA this season. d’Arnaud is expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he comes with tremendous upside for his position.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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