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MLB DFS 8/13/19 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack 

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, leading the league in runs scored through 120 games. They also rank second in the MLB in home runs and third in team batting average and OPS. New York has been better on the road, but they are still hitting for a .267 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .815 OPS through 63 home games. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Yankees are -288 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.8 runs. 

New York gets a matchup against John Means, who has thrown well through 22 games (18 starts) this season. In those games, he owns an 8-7 record with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. With that being said, he’s due for major regression, as he also owns a 5.47 xFIP and a 4.93 SIERA this season. Means has given up a 49.7% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 10.1% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 29.6% hard hit rate against him, while recording an 18.1% soft hit rate. He brings 19.7% strikeout and 9.9% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Means has been significantly worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .251 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. He has also given up a .265/.475/.340 line on the road in 2019. The Yankees feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, and they are loaded with elite right-handed batters. They should find plenty of success in this particular matchup, and they make a safe stacking option. 

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack 

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have found plenty of success through 118 games, leading the league in team batting average and OPS. They also rank fourth in the MLB in runs scored and third in home runs. The Astros have been slightly better at home, but they own a .272 average with a .487 slugging percentage and a .833 OPS through 60 road games. They are also averaging 5.5 runs and 4.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are -309 favorites in a game set at 10 runs tonight, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 6.6 runs. 

The Astros get a great matchup against Ivan Nova, who has struggled through 24 starts in 2019. In those starts, he owns a 7-9 record with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has struggled with a 4.83 xFIP and a 5.10 SIERA, as well. Nova has held his opponents to a 29.5% fly ball rate, while giving up a 17.9% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 34.8% hard hit rate, while recording an 18% soft hit rate in 2019. He enters this game with 14.6% strikeout and 8.9% swinging strike rates, as well. Nova has been slightly worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .295 average with a .504 slugging percentage and a .350 wOBA. He has also given up a .294/.469/.347 line to right-handed batters in 2019. He has been better at home, but his opponents still boast a .278/.491/.340 line against him this season. The Astros will be playing a double-header, but they still feature an elite offense on this slate. 

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack 

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have featured one of the worst offenses in the MLB through 116 games this season. They currently rank 30th in the league in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking 29th in home runs and OPS. They have struggled a bit in Detroit, as well, where they own a .236 average with a .374 slugging percentage and a .666 OPS through 58 games. The Tigers are also averaging 3.4 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game at home. Still, Detroit is a -155 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.8 runs tonight. 

Yusei Kikuchi will be taking the mound for the Seattle Mariners tonight. He has struggled through 24 starts, recording a 4-8 record with a 5.34 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.15 xFIP and a 5.13 SIERA in those starts. Kikuchi has given up 35.8% fly ball and 20.1% HR/FB rates to his opponents this season. He has also allowed them to hit for a 36% hard hit rate against him, while recording a 19% soft hit rate. He has also recorded 16.9% strikeout and 8.9% swinging strike rates in 2019. Kikuchi has struggled against everyone throughout the season. He is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .293 average with a .576 slugging percentage and a .373 wOBA, while right-handed batters have posted a .284/.518/.358 line against him this season. Kikuchi has also been at his worst on the road, where his opponents own a .297/.522/.363 line. The Tigers quietly rank 14th in the MLB in runs scored over the last week, and they are a stack that will go overlooked on a large slate, but they come with tremendous upside tonight. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Brendan McKay

McKay has only thrown in six games this season, posting a 2-2 record with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He also owns a 3.78 xFIP and a 3.67 SIERA this season. McKay has struggled a bit with 42% fly ball and 16.2% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 36% hard hit rate, as well, while recording an 18% soft hit rate this season. McKay brings 26.4% strikeout and 12.8% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -122 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.9 runs tonight. 

McKay gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature a below average team wOBA on this slate. McKay has been at his best against left-handed batters, holding them to a .192 average with a .269 slugging percentage and a .212 wOBA. He has also been better on the road early in his career, as his opponents own a .244/.439/.291 line against him on the road this season. McKay is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Hitter

Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera has been playing at a high level, posting a .325 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .900 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded three extra-base hits (two home runs) and six RBIs in those games, as well. Cabrera also enters this game with a 50% hard hit rate and a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.071 wOBA and 0.092 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well. 

Cabrera gets a great matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, who has struggled with a 5.15 xFIP and a 5.13 SIERA this season. He has also allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .284 average with a .518 slugging percentage and a .358 wOBA this season. Furthermore, Kikuchi has allowed his opponents to post a .297/.522/.363 line against him on the road in 2019. Cabrera is expected to hit third in the Detroit Tigers lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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