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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Atlanta Braves feature an elite offense, ranking sixth in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, fifth in home runs, and seventh in team batting average through 121 games. Atlanta has found significantly more success at home, where they are hitting for a .273 average with a .482 slugging percentage and a .834 OPS through 58 games. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Braves are -147 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.4 runs.
Atlanta gets a great matchup against Steven Matz, who has posted a 7-7 record with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 23 games (21 starts). He has been at his worst on the road, though, where he has recorded a 5.23 xFIP this season. Matz has also struggled with 37% fly ball and 22.5% HR/FB rates away from home in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 42.3% hard hit rate, while recording only a 15.5% soft hit rate outside from New York this season. His strikeout rate also drops to 17.6% on the road in 2019. Matz has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .295 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA. He has also given up a .271/.473/.331 line to right-handed batters this season. Furthermore, Matz has been at his worst on the road, as we know, allowing his opponents to post a .305/.573/.381 line against him away from New York in 2019. The Braves feature an elite offense at home, and they make a safe option in this matchup tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Seattle Mariners have seen plenty of offensive ups and downs throughout the 2019 season. They rank 14th in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in home runs, 26th in team batting average, and 17th in OPS through 120 games. The Mariners have found more success on the road, where they boast a .241 average with a .456 slugging percentage and a .772 OPS through 57 games. They are also averaging 4.9 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Seattle is a -146 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.5 runs.
The Mariners get an elite matchup against Edwin Jackson, who has struggled through nine games (six starts). In those games, he owns a 2-5 record with a 9.35 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 6.17 xFIP and a 5.69 SIERA this season. Jackson has allowed his opponents to post 38.3% fly ball and 26.5% HR/FB rates this season. He has also given up a 42.6% hard hit rate, while recording only a 13.2% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 13.6% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates into this game. Jackson has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to post a .400 average with a .859 slugging percentage and a .527 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .284/.552/.378 line to left-handed batters this season. Jackson has struggled at home, as well, where his opponents have posted a .345/.770/.473 line against him this season. The Mariners aren’t a consistent offense, but they come with tremendous upside, and this is a matchup that they can take advantage of.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Keuchel has seen mixed results this season, as he owns a 3-5 record with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP through 10 starts. He has been significantly better at home, though, where his xFIP drops to 3.13. He has also held his opponents to 17.3% fly ball and 15.4% HR/FB rates in Atlanta. He has given up a 35.5% hard hit rate at home, while also holding his opponents to a 23.7% soft hit in those innings. Keuchel has also seen his strikeout rate increase to 21.9% at home in 2019. He’s currently a -147 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.7 runs tonight.
Keuchel gets a matchup against the New York Mets, which is far from the best matchup on this slate. With that being said, there are limited options worth mentioning tonight. Keuchel has found significantly more success against left-handed batters, holding them to a .167 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .257 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .172/.273/.214 line in Atlanta this season. Normally, I wouldn’t consider Keuchel in this spot, but without many decent options on this slate, he can be considered in tournaments.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
I’m going back to the well with Cabrera tonight. He continues to play well, posting a .325 average with a .525 slugging percentage and a .938 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and six RBIs over that span, as well. Cabrera has also posted a 48% hard hit rate to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.079 wOBA and 0.102 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Cabrera gets a great matchup against Marco Gonzales, who has struggled with a 4.95 xFIP and a 4.93 SIERA this season. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, but he has given up a .254 average with a .406 slugging percentage and a .301 wOBA to right-handed batters. Gonzales has also allowed his opponents to post a .269/.472/.334 line against him on the road this season. Cabrera is expected to hit third in the Detroit Tigers offense, and he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)