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MLB DFS 9/12/19 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack 

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros feature one of the best offenses in the MLB this season, leading the league in team batting average and OPS. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored and fourth in home runs through 147 games. Houston has been at their best at home, where they are hitting for a .286 average with a .514 slugging percentage and a .878 OPS through 75 games. They are averaging 6.1 runs and 4.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Astros are -278 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.7 runs tonight. 

Houston gets a matchup against Homer Bailey, who has seen mixed results this season. Through 28 starts, he owns a 12-8 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.50 xFIP and a 4.67 SIERA in those starts. Bailey has given up 33.4% fly ball and 14.4% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 44.2% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 14.7% soft hit rate. He brings 20.9% strikeout and 10.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Bailey has been a reverse splits pitcher, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .304 average with a .451 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA. Surprisingly, he has only given up a .220/.385/.283 line to left-handed batters in 2019. Bailey has been at his worst on the road, as well, where his opponents have posted a .266/.448/.333 line against him. Bailey is due for a bit of regression against left-handed batters, and Houston makes the best stacking option in cash games on this smaller slate tonight. 

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack 

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers also possess one of the best offenses in the MLB, ranking fifth in the league in runs scored, third in home runs, 10th in team batting average, and fourth in OPS through 147 games. The Dodgers have been a better offense at home, but they still boast a .254 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .809 OPS through 71 road games. They are also averaging 5.8 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Los Angeles is a -223 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs. 

The Dodgers get a great matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has posted a 6-13 record with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP through 27 starts. He has also recorded a 4.54 xFIP and a 4.53 SIERA in those starts. Bundy has struggled with 37% fly ball and 17.9% HR/FB rates this season. He has given up a 31.5% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.4% soft hit rate in 2019, as well. He also enters this game with 22.8% strikeout and 12.7% swinging strike rates. Bundy has struggled against both sides of the plate in 2019. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .271 average with a .448 slugging percentage and a .322 wOBA, while right-handed batters have posted a .254/.512/.348 line against him. Bundy has also struggled in Baltimore, where his opponents have recorded a .292/.527/.359 line against him this season. While Los Angeles has struggled a bit on the road in 2019, they will be playing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. Los Angeles is another offense that will likely feature quite a bit of ownership on this smaller slate, and they can also be considered in cash games. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Tyler Mahle

Mahle has seen mixed results this season, recording a 2-11 record with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP through 21 starts. He’s due for positive regression, though, as he also owns a 3.90 xFIP and a 4.09 SIERA in those games. Mahle has held his opponents to a 31.6% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 19.2% HR/FB rate. He has also posted 38.4% hard hit and 13.5% soft hit rates in 2019. Mahle brings 23.8% strikeout and 9.3% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a -116 favorite in a game set at 9 runs tonight, as well. 

Mahle gets a great matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who rank as an average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat on this slate. They also rank in the bottom-four of the slate in team wOBA. Mahle has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .242 average with a .363 slugging percentage and a .279 wOBA this season. He has struggled on the road in 2019, but he’s due for plenty of regression outside of Cincinnati. On this slate, Mahle can be considered in all leagues. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Hitter

Joey Votto

Votto has been playing at a high level, posting a .313 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .950 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs over that span. Votto also boasts 44% hard hit and 31% line drive rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.011 wOBA and 0.08 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well. 

Justin Dunn will serve as the opener for the Seattle Mariners in this game, and he’s expected to throw a couple of innings. He’ll then give way to Tommy Milone in what will be a bullpen game for Seattle. Votto is expected to his second in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, and he’s a solid option in all leagues tonight.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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