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MLB DFS 9/27/19 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack 

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers have seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season. They rank 17th in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in home runs, 21st in team batting average, and 12th in OPS through 159 games. Milwaukee has found more success at home, but they are still hitting for a .241 average with a .427 slugging percentage and a .747 OPS through 78 road games. They are averaging 4.7 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Brewers are -157 favorites in a game set at 13.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.6 runs. 

Milwaukee gets a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who has struggled through 24 starts this season. In those starts, he has posted a 10-11 record with a 6.90 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.17 xFIP and a 5.57 SIERA this season. Senzatela has held his opponents to a 23.6% fly ball rate, although he has given up an 18.2% HR/FB rate. He has allowed his opponents to post a 38.4% hard hit rate against him to go along with an 18.3% soft hit rate. He brings 12.6% strikeout and 7.0% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Senzatela has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .339 average with a .561 slugging percentage and a .406 wOBA. He has also given up a .291/.458/.342 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Senzatela has struggled in Colorado, where his opponents have recorded a .304/.500/.357 line against him. While the Brewers have struggled at times this season, they should find success in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB tonight. 

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack 

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees feature an elite offense in 2019, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, fourth in team batting average, and third in OPS through 159 games. Surprisingly, the Yankees have found more success on the road, where they boast a .271 average with a .502 slugging percentage and a .845 OPS through 78 games. They are also averaging 6.2 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. New York is currently a -269 favorite in a game set at 11 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 7.0 runs tonight. 

The Yankees get an elite matchup against Joe Palumbo, who has recorded an 0-2 record with a 9.22 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP through six games (three starts). He owns a 5.19 xFIP and a 4.90 SIERA in those games, as well. In limited innings, Palumbo has struggled with 33.3% fly ball and 28.6% HR/FB rates. He has also given up a 48.8% hard hit rate to go along with a 2.3% soft hit rate in 2019. He enters this game with 21.2% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates, as well. Palumbo has struggled against both sides of the plate this season. He has given up a .295 average with a .545 slugging percentage and a .393 wOBA to right-handed batters, while also allowing left-handed batters to post a .250/.750/.438 line against him. He has given up a .357/.738/.490 line to his opponents in Texas this season, as well. Keep in mind, Palumbo has thrown in limited innings in 2019, but an elite New York offense should find plenty of success against him in a hitter friendly stadium tonight. 

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack 

Washington Nationals 

The Washington Nationals have found plenty of offensive success through 159 games this season. They currently rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 13th in home runs, sixth in OPS. They have found more success in Washington, where they possess a .271 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .836 OPS. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game through 78 home games this season. The Nationals are -136 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 5.2 runs. 

Zach Plesac will be taking the mound for the Cleveland Indians tonight. He has thrown well through 20 starts, posting an 8-6 record with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he has struggled a bit with a 5.14 xFIP and a 5.21 SIERA this season. Plesac enters this game with 38.5% fly ball and 15.1% HR/FB rates. He has also given up a 38.5% hard hit rate, while recording only a 15.5% soft hit rate in 2019. He has recorded 18.1% strikeout and 9.3% swinging strike rates this season, as well. Plesac has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .256 average with a .487 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. He has also given up a .220/.419/.308 line to his opponents on the road this season. With that being said, Plesac is due for regression both at home and against left-handed batters. While Washington isn’t necessarily loaded with left-handed batters, they have an offense that can get to any pitcher in the MLB at home. Plesac could see some of that regression in this matchup tonight. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Vince Velasquez

Velasquez has seen mixed results throughout the 2019 season. He has posted a 7-8 record with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP through 32 games (22 starts). He has also recorded a 4.74 xFIP and a 4.37 SIERA this season. Velasquez has given up a 45% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to an 18% HR/FB rate. He possesses 47.2% hard hit and 12.9% soft hit rates in 2019. Velasquez brings 25.6% strikeout and 11.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -187 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.8 runs. 

Velasquez gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking fourth last on the slate in team wOBA. Velasquez has been slightly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .251 average with a .490 slugging percentage and a .340 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .234/.462/.317 line at home this season. Velasquez can be considered in all leagues for his price tag tonight. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Hitter

Asdrubal Cabrera

Cabrera is hitting for a .300 average with a .533 slugging percentage and a .928 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and eight RBIs over that span. Cabrera possesses 55% hard hit and 28% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.007 wOBA and 0.076 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well. 

Cabrera gets a matchup against Zach Plesac, who has already been outlined above. Cabrera is expected to hit sixth in the Washington Nationals lineup, and he has been a consistent option, while also flashing upside. He can be considered in all leagues on this slate.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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