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MLB DFS 9/28/19 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack 

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers make up the “Chalk Stack” in Coors once again. They have seen mixed results in 2019, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and 12th in OPS through 160 games. Milwaukee has been better at home, but they still boast a .243 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .751 OPS through 79 road games. They are averaging 4.8 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Brewers are -131 favorites in a game set at 13.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.3 runs. 

Milwaukee gets an elite matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has struggled through 13 games (11 starts) this season. In those games, he has posted a 2-6 record with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.53 xFIP and a 5.86 SIERA this season. Gonzalez has given up 32.2% fly ball and 17.2% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 38% hard hit rate to go along with a 17.4% soft hit rate. He brings 15.6% strikeout and 8.1% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Gonzalez has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .260 average with a .479 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA. He has also given up a .250/.435/.317 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Gonzalez has struggled in Colorado this season, giving up a .309/.519/.384 line to his opponents at home. Both sides of this game are likely to feature ownership, and either team can be stacked in cash games. Milwaukee is simply the safer stacking option in this matchup.  

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack 

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have struggled offensively in 2019, ranking 25th in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in home runs, 24th in team batting average, and 22nd in OPS through 160 games. They have found more success in Cincinnati, and they are hitting for a .235 average with a .408 slugging percentage and a .712 OPS on the road this season. They are also averaging 4.3 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game through 79 road games in 2019. The Reds are currently -120 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.7 runs tonight. 

James Marvel will be taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has only throwing in three starts this season, posting an 0-3 record with a 10.22 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. He also owns a 5.32 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA in 2019. Marvel has held his opponents to a 23.4% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 27.3% HR/FB rate this season. He has given up a 36.7% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.3% soft hit rate, as well. He also enters this game with 11.3% strikeout and 9.5% swinging strike rates. Marvel has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .419 average with a .742 slugging percentage and a .485 wOBA. He has given up a .261/.435/.362 line to left-handed batters in 2019, as well. Marvel is due for major regression against lefties, though, as he owns a 6.57 xFIP against left-handed batters, while posting a 4.26 xFIP against righties. He’s also due for a bit of regression in Pittsburgh. Marvel has thrown limited innings in 2019, and Cincinnati comes with solid upside for low price tags on this slate. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Steven Matz

Matz has thrown well throughout the 2019 season, posting a 10-10 record with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 31 games (29 starts). He also boasts a 4.29 xFIP and a 4.43 SIERA this season. Matz has held his opponents to a 32.9% fly ball rate, while allowing an 18% HR/FB rate. He has also recorded 36.7% hard hit and 17.2% soft hit rates in 2019. Matz brings 22% strikeout and 9.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -106 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.3 runs. 

Matz gets an interesting matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature a slightly below average team wOBA. Matz has been slightly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .264 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .327 wOBA. He has been at his best in New York, where his opponents only own a .239/.379/.292 line against him this season. Matz has been a night and day pitcher at home and on the road, and he could find success in this matchup in New York. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Hitter

Yadier Molina

Molina has been playing well recently, posting a .333 average with a .511 slugging percentage and a .837 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts four extra-base hits (two home runs), eight RBI, and two stolen bases in those games. Over the last 15 days, Molina possesses 47% hard hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity. He brings 0.058 wOBA and 0.025 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well. 

Molina gets a tough matchup against Cole Hamels, who has thrown well with a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.66 SIERA this season. Hamels has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .262 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA. Molina is hitting fifth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and he makes a solid option in all leagues tonight.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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