Poliana Botelho (-165)
This is a relatively simple matchup between two high-level strawweights. Poliana Botelho is a striker, while Cynthia Calvillo is a grappler. Whoever can turn this fight into their style of fight has a significant advantage. Botelho has displayed strong takedown defense in the past, and I believe her ability to keep this fight standing will be the difference here. She has a significant height/reach advantage, which could help keep Calvillo on the outside. Botelho also has the potential to end this fight on the feet. Furthermore, I lean Botelho when both of these fighters are completely healthy, and that may not be the case this weekend. Calvillo missed weight by two pounds, and looked visibly drained. This line may widen as people add bets here, and this could be Calvillo’s final fight in this weight class.
Bet 2 units on Botelho to win 1.2 units
Khalil Rountree (-180)/Johnny Walker (+150)
This is a fight between two finishers. I lean heavily towards Rountree, but I’m willing to simply take these odds on the under. Six of Rountree’s nine fights have ended in the first round, while 12 of Walker’s 17 fights have also ended in the first. Rountree comes with tremendous power, and he truly only needs to land one strike to end a fight. Walker may try to get this fight to the ground, but he could struggle with the power of Rountree. I expect this fight to stay standing for the most part, and if that’s the case, one of these two fighters has the potential to end the fight with only one strike. There’s very little reason to believe that two fighters, who are trying to impress UFC management with their finishing abilities, will be tentative in this fight. Keep in mind, this fight doesn’t have to end in the first round to hit either, although I’d be willing to bet that it does.
Bet 2 units on Rountree/Walker UNDER 1.5 rounds to win 1.4 units
Jesus Pinedo (-195)
Jesus Pinedo is making his UFC debut after racking up a 15-4 professional fighting record, winning six fights in a row. Training out of Pitbull Martial Arts Center, the 22-year-old should be able to pick up the victory this Saturday against the struggling Devin Powell. The Vegas odds for this fight are probably tighter than they should be because Pinedo has yet to fight UFC-level competition, but Powell is not that. He is 1-2 in his UFC career, and tracing back the lineage of his victory, Alvaro Herrera only has one UFC victory to Vernon Ramos, who never won in the UFC. Powell would have been cut if he did not pick up the win against Herrera, and it is likely that if he loses this fight, it will be the end of the road for his UFC career. Powell has finishing ability, but Pinedo is much faster with slick submission offense. Pinedo has the ability to show the world that he is ready for the big leagues at such a young age, and the UFC is probably trying to get rid of Powell at this point anyway. As a bonus, betting the U 2.5 rounds for -120 is a riskier bet, but one that makes a lot of sense considering Pinedo’s finishing ability.
Bet 2 units on Pinedo to win 1.3 units
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Santiago Ponzinibbio, Khalil Rountree, Alexandre Pantoja, Jesus Pinedo, and Nad Narimani to win to win 4.1 units (+414)
