Adam Wieczorek (-220)
Bettors should be confident in Adam Wieczorek this weekend, but betting more than a couple units on him is a setup for disaster. He’s a submission specialist heavyweight, who only features one loss in his career against Marcin Tybura in 2011. He won an impressive fight against Arjan Singh Bhullar with an Omoplata, which is extremely rare, especially for a heavyweight. He gets a matchup against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, who has been fighting at light-heavyweight. Each of his last three losses have come via submission, and Wieczorek should have no problems getting this fight to the ground with his size advantage. Rogerio de Lima does come with power in his hands, though, so this fight comes with some volatility. Wieczorek has a significant advantage, though, and that’s what we’re betting on.
Bet 2 units on Wieczorek to win 0.9 units
Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza (+145)
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Chris Weidman are set to square off in a matchup that will determine middleweight title picture relevance for one of the two fighters. Souza is coming off of a disappointing split decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum, while Weidman is coming off of an impressive submission victory over the same opponent. Perhaps, this the main reason that the Vegas line is favoring Weidman. Souza is the better striker, while Weidman is the better wrestler, but “Jacare” has the submission offense to keep Weidman thinking on the ground, if the fight were to get there. Weidman, prior to his latest victory, lost three consecutive fights to Luke Rockhold, Yoel Romero, and Gegard Mousasi. This is not all that alarming, as these three fighters are elite, especially considering the fight against Rockhold took place in 2015. Souza, on the other hand, has been battling back and forth in the win/loss collum. He has victories over Derek Brunson and Tim Boetsch, but a loss to Robert Whittaker. This is such an interesting matchup, but the line should be closer to -115 for either fighter. Due to this, Souza has a betting advantage as far as value is concerned, and it would be wise to exploit that advantage.
Bet 1 unit on Souza to win 1.45 units
Derek Brunson (+265)
This is a little bit riskier of a bet, but the Vegas line for the Derek Brunson and Israel Adesanya fight is way over-extended. Brunson rarely gets credit for his ability inside the octagon, and he ends up being the underdog in most of his fights. Adesanya, on the other hand, is completely overhyped. He quickly moved up the UFC middleweight rankings, but only has wins over Rob Wilkinson, Marvin Vettori, and Brad Tavares. His win against Wilkinson was very impressive, but after that, he won a split decision and a unanimous decision. Brunson does have quite a few losses, but these losses come to extremely high-level competition. He has lost to Ronaldo Souza, Anderson Silva, Robert Whittaker, and Yoel Romero in the UFC. The loss to Silva was not actually a loss, so toss that out. Souza, Whittaker, and Romero are the best of the best in this division. Brunson has wins over fighters like Sam Alvey, Uriah Hall, Daniel Kelly, and Lyoto Machida. In fact, in his last six victories, every single one came via a knockout in the first round. Even if Adesanya can stop Brunson’s takedown attempts, he has to worry about his powerful hands. Adesanya is undoubtedly one of the best defensive fighters in the division, and his speed is frustrating for most, but Brunson is always down for a good head hunt. For the odds, he may be the best betting underdog of the week.
Bet 1 unit on Brunson to win 2.65 units
Parlay 1 unit on Julio Arce, Lyman Good, Adam Wieczorek, Daniel Cormier, and Karl Roberson to win 2.5 units (+250)