Marlon Moraes (-165)
I personally thought Marlon Moraes beat Raphael Assuncao in their first fight, so I’m extremely excited for the rematch. Both of these fighters are high level grapplers, and I expect this fight to play out the majority on the feet. If that’s the case, I heavily favor Moraes, who comes with significantly more power. His output should be enough to outwork Assuncao, and he has the power to finish this fight in any round. The same can’t be said about Assuncao. Furthermore, Moraes questionably lost their first fight in his first bout in the UFC, and he has looked significantly better since then. While I do believe Assuncao is a great fighter, I believe Moraes has championship potential. He’ll take a competitive win here.
Bet 1.65 units on Moraes to win 1 unit
Livinha Souza (-225)
These odds are a bit surprising. If we’re strictly looking at the odds, the -225 suggests Livinha Souza has a very good chance to win this fight. The odds are also set at -130 that this fight gets less than 2.5 rounds, suggesting this fight will finish. Yet, we can get +150 odds on Souza finishing this fight. Sarah Frota is a solid finisher, but she hasn’t fought the same level of competition as Souza. Souza’s only loss was a split decision to Angela Hill, who has found plenty of success in the UFC. Both women have the potential to end this fight multiple ways, but I feel Souza’s grappling is simply a bit stronger. She’s a black belt in Brazilian Jui-Jitsu, and I expect her to find a finish relatively early in this fight.
Bet 1 unit on Souza by (T)KO, DQ, or Submission to win 1.5 units
Lyman Good (+145)
Demian Maia is undoubtedly one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the entire world, currently sitting on a fourth-degree black belt under Fabio Gurgel, but in order to utilize his skill set, Lyman Good is going to have to find his way to the ground. Fortunately for Good, he has great takedown defense (86 percent), and Maia, despite being crafty, cannot outpower a fighter the size of Good. If Maia is capable of grounding Good, a submission victory is a very likely scenario, but if this fight stays standing for over a round, Good has the striking to knock Maia out cold. He is a third-degree black belt in Tiger Schulmann’s MMA under Daniel “Tiger” Schulmann himself. Good has been extremely successful in kickboxing tournaments, Bellator, and the UFC. He is an extremely well-rounded athlete, and, whether fans are willing to accept this or not, Maia is on his way out of the organization soon. Granted, he will continue to get fight contracts as long as he wants them due to name recognition, but his days of beating the best in the welterweight division are over.
Bet 1 unit on Good to win 1.45 units
Parlay 1 unit on Renato Moicano, Johnny Walker, Livia Renata Souza, and Magomed Bibulatov to win 3.53 units