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Bales’ Bananas – Monkey Knife Fight MMA Prop Picks – UFC 249

Welcome to Bales’ Bananas – Monkey Knife Fight MMA Prop Picks – UFC 249! Below I will discuss my MMA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!

 

More or Less 2/2 – Greg Hardy vs Yorgan de Castro

Monkey Knife Fight put out props that favor fights that go the distance. Regardless of the fight, a win is worth 25 fantasy points. That means if someone knocks out their opponent in the first, they will receive the same amount of fantasy points for a win as someone that wins a decision. 

Greg Hardy and Yorgan de Castro are two heavyweights that have heavy hands. They consistently finish fights, and this fight boasts -205 odds to end inside the distance. Surprisingly, this fight is expected to go into the second round, although it would be far from surprising if it ended in the first.

Hardy has a few fights in the UFC, but his style doesn’t score fantasy points on this site. He knocked out Dmitrii Smoliakov in the first, but scored only 87 fantasy points. This is the usual for Hardy outside of the Juan Adams fight. He scored 169 fantasy points in that fight, but landed 86.1% of his strikes on the ground after the ref let the fight go on a bit long. Even with that outlier, Hardy hit the over by less than 20 fantasy points. We have to worry about a knockdown, but Hardy won’t add any grappling fantasy points.

de Castro looked outstanding in his UFC debut, knocking out Justin Tafa with only six total strikes. He scored 35 fantasy points in that win. Similarly to Hardy, we shouldn’t worry about de Castro adding grappling fantasy points. Instead, he’ll likely counterstrike to Hardy, who may be hesitant coming off of a loss. I expect this fight to be relatively slow paced with both fighters having the potential to end the fight at any given moment.

Without extra fantasy points for finishing fights early, this fight has all the makings of the under. 

Play 1 unit on Greg Hardy UNDER 150.5 fantasy points and Yorgan de Castro UNDER 135.5 fantasy points to win 2.5 units (2.5x)

 

Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.

 

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