Bales Brothers’ MMA Bets for UFC Fight Night: Sao Paulo
Evan Dunham’s retirement fight won’t be easy, but can he do enough to get the win and pay off as an underdog?
Welcome to our MMA sports betting picks! In this article, Jason and Justin Bales will be outlining a few of their favorite MMA betting picks for the Fight Night 137 card this weekend!
For this article, we will be using odds from MyBookie.today. We hope you enjoy!
UFC Fight Night 137 Bets
Evan Dunham (+205)
The odds on this fight are a bit wide. Evan Dunham is an overly active fighter, landing 5.46 significant strikes per minute in the UFC. He also attempts over 5.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. While Francisco Trinaldo will be the bigger fighter of the duo, he only features a 63.49% takedown defense, while being significantly less active on the feet.
Furthermore, Dunham features a 80.56% takedown defense, suggesting he should be able to keep this fight standing for the majority of it. The most important aspect in this fight is that it is currently set at -155 to go the distance. Dunham is active enough to edge Trinaldo in a decision, but keep in mind, this fight takes place in Brazil.
Dunham could also be more willing to “leave it in the octagon” in this fight because he has already announced his retirement. It’s not surprising that Trinaldo is the favorite in Brazil this week, but it is a bit surprising that he’s this large of a favorite.
Bet 1 unit on Dunham to win 2.1 units
Andre Ewell (+105)
This fight basically comes down to one thing – how shot do you believe Renan Barao is?
He has lost four of his last five fights, winning only once since 2014. That win was against Phillipe Nover, who went 1-6 in the UFC, recording his only win via split decision. Andre Ewell has been extremely active, fighting 10 times since 2017, recording an 8-2 record. He has been a finisher throughout his career, posting an 85% finish rate in his 13 wins.
If this fight had taken place in 2013, Barao would be a massive favorite, but he’s still seeing odds based on his career rather than his current form. Similarly to Dunham, the Brazilian judge’s are a major concern in this fight, especially since Barao is such a massive name in Brazil.
Regardless, Ewell is a pure finisher, and Barao’s line is focusing a bit more on his name value than it should.
Bet 1 units on Ewell to win 1.1 units
Hector Lombard (-130)
Hector Lombard is a slight favorite this week against Thales Leites, but he should be able to pick up the victory for a variety of reasons.
First, Lombard is the better striker. He has slightly better stand-up defense, he is slightly more accurate, and his overhand comes with quite a bit of power. Leites, on the other hand, has a great reach advantage, but Lombard should be able to work his way into the pocket to negate that advantage. As far as wrestling goes, Lombard could get Leites to the ground, but it is unlikely that he wants to.
At the end of a close round, he may attempt a takedown in order to secure some points, but Leites has a world-class ground game that Lombard will want to avoid. Luckily for Lombard, he has great takedown defense, so he should be able to keep this fight standing. If he does find his way onto his back, he is definitely in trouble.
There is a little bit of risk to this bet, but Lombard is and should be the favorite.
Bet 2 units on Lombard to win 1.5 units
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