Welcome to Bales’ Premium PrizePicks – UFC 249! Below I will discuss my favorite NFL MMA plays for this weekend!
Power Play
I don’t say this often, but Vicente Luque’s over may be as locked in as I have ever been on PrizePicks. He’s currently a -290 favorite with -130 odds to finish inside the distance. Luque has won 8 of his last 10 fights, finishing 7 of those wins. He posted 100+ fantasy points in each of those 7 wins, as well, including a 111 fantasy point performance against Niko Price. Price has tremendous power, but has had a bit of luck on his side in the UFC. He has a knockout win off of his back and another with an upkick. Luque was clearly the better fighter in their first encounter in 2017, and he has progressed better than Price since then. Price has knockout potential, and anything can happen in MMA, but Luque is better fighter in all aspects. He has the power to finish this fight on the feet and the submission skills to finish on the ground. Luque makes on of the best plays at this total that I’ve ever seen on PrizePicks.
This is an interesting fight, as both fighters will have a clear advantage. Jacare Souza is an elite grappler, while Uriah Hall has tremendous power in his strikes. In other words, Souza will have a massive advantage on the ground, while Hall will have the advantage on the feet. Hall has never been finished by submission in his career, but he has been prone to giving up takedowns. Souza is relentless, and is a level higher than any of Hall’s wins. This comes down to a man that has been at the top of the division for quite some time against a man that has consistently faltered against top talent. This total is also a bit low, as Souza will have to grapple if he wants to win, although he does possess knockout power and Hall’s chin has been tested in the past. Souza boasts +170 odds to finish this fight inside the distance, and I feel his moneyline odds are a bit too close for his skillset.
Play 1 unit on Vicente Luque OVER 86.8 and Jacare Souza OVER 70.6 to win 2.5 units (2.5x)
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