Welcome to the ‘Battle of the Bales’ fantasy MMA breakdown. This article offers UFC DraftKings picks for the upcoming UFC 244 card this Saturday. Justin will offer a recommendation, followed by Jason’s response. DFS Karma readers can probably guess what happens next. Jason will offer a recommendation, followed by Justin’s response.
UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC 244 – High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker burst onto the UFC scene in November of 2018 with a brutal knockout win over Khalil Rountree Jr. Since then, the UFC has handpicked winnable fights for him. He has rewarded Dana White and company with tremendous knockouts of Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov.
Walker has totaled less than three minutes inside the octagon in those three fights. He gets another plus matchup against Corey Anderson, who is on a three-fight win streak, but was knocked out by Ovince Saint Preux and Jimi Manuwa prior to that.
Anderson is a wrestler, which will likely be Walker’s kryptonite when he finally loses. With that being said, he has a questionable chin, and Walker’s power is very real. The latter has scored 100+ DK points in each of his three UFC fights. He isn’t the safest option on the card, but he makes an elite option in tournaments this weekend.
Jason’s Reaction: Walker is the top, high-priced tournament option this weekend.
Jason’s Pick: Shane Burgos
Shane Burgos is the most expensive fighter on DraftKings this Saturday, but his high price tag is worth it in cash games. In all of his last four victories (four of his last five fights), Burgos scored over 90 fantasy points. He went to a decision in two of those fights, meaning his floor in a win is around 90 fantasy points. He has submission and knockout potential, as well.
Makwan Amirkhani is a Muay Thai striker from Kermanshah, Iran. He found some success over the last couple of years in the UFC, picking up wins over Andy Olge, Masio Fullen, Mike Wilkinson, Jason Knight, and most notably, Chris Fishgold. His only UFC loss is a split decision against Arnold Allen. Unfortunately for Amirkhani, Burgos is on another level.
Burgos is currently a -245 betting favorite with +240 odds to finish inside the distance. He has a great floor for cash games and high upside for tournaments. Roster Burgos in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Burgos significantly more in cash games than tournaments, but he’s a solid option.
UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC 244 – Mid Priced
Justin’s Pick: Lyman Good
Lyman Good is not a great fighter, but the same can be said for Chance Rencountre. This fight will likely turn into a striker versus grappler matchup. Good is a second-degree black belt in Karate under Daniel “Tiger” Schulmann. He will have a clear advantage on the feet. Good also boasts tremendous power, finishing both of his UFC wins via (T)KO.
Rencountre hasn’t looked overly impressive in the UFC, but he managed to earn a 2-1 record. He is a tough fighter, flashing an ability to fight through damage.
Good has flashed solid takedown defense in the UFC, and this is a major step down in competition from his last fight against Demian Maia. I expect Good to keep this fight standing, where he can find a knockout or win a convincing decision.
Jason’s Reaction: I don’t like avoiding this fight, but I also don’t like picking either of these two fighters. *shrugs*
Jason’s Pick: Derrick Lewis
This fight is a toss up. Derrick Lewis is currently a -105 betting underdog against the -115 Blagoy Ivanov. Lewis has much better inside the distance odds at +175 compared to Ivanov at +320, making him a much better tournament option.
Ivanov is a four-time World Combat Sambo Champion, and he owns a black belt in Judo. Taking Derrick Lewis to the ground has proven to be a difficult task for most heavyweights, though. If this fight stays standing, Lewis has a slight edge due to his power.
Both Lewis and Ivanov consistently defeat non-elite competition, but failed against Junior dos Santos. Lewis also recently fell to UFC Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier. If fight math matters at all, Lewis did defeat Alexander Volkov, and Volkov defeated Ivanov. If Ivanov executes his game plan, he could pick up a decision victory. However, Lewis can end the fight in one punch, and on DraftKings, that kind of upside at $8,000 is too much to pass on in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree here. Ivanov has virtually no upside, while Lewis has plenty of knockout power. He’s a great option.
UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC 244 – Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Vicente Luque
Vicente Luque is an up-and-coming fighter, boasting an 8-1 UFC record since 2016. His only loss is to Leon Edwards, who has been fighting at an elite level.
Luque gets a matchup against Stephen Thompson, who owns a 1-3-1 record over his last five fights. He comes with a questionable chin, as he was knocked out by Anthony Pettis in his last fight. Thompson is a defensive striker, who fights to win on points.
Luque is the more dynamic fighter, though, as he boasts power with solid submissions. He comes with significantly more upside than Thompson, but features a lower price tag. The odds are essentially even for this fight, and the upside of Luque makes him a solid salary relief option.
Jason’s Reaction: Luque has good inside the distance odds based on his odds to win the fight. He has great upside is Saturday.
Jason’s Pick: Andrei Arlovski
Andrei Arlovski finally picked up the pace in his last fight, landing 152 significant strikes against Ben Rothwell. He won a unanimous decision, scoring 106 DraftKings fantasy points. Prior to his win against Rothwell, it looked like Arlovski could be headed for retirement after three consecutive losses to Tai Tuivasa, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Augusto Sakai. Perhaps, the 40-year-old has a new sense of urgency?
Jairzinho Rozenstruik made his UFC debut against Junior Albini, knocking him out in the second round. He ended Allen Crowder’s night in nine seconds at UFC Fight Night 154. The 31-year-old from Paramaribo, Suriname has impressive power. However, his Muay Thai styles bodes well for Arlovski.
Arlovski loves to box from a distance, and if he executes that game plan this Saturday at UFC 244, he should win a decision. If Rozenstruik forces him to strike as frequently as Rothwell did, Arlovski could surpass 100 DraftKings fantasy points again. That said, Rozenstruik is a solid option in tournaments, as well, as he should test Arlovski’s rejuvenated chin. All in all, roster Arlovski in cash games and tournaments, but save Rozenstruik for tournaments only.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m still off of Arlovski. I have been forever. I see no reason at all to use him because there’s such a small chance he fights at as high of a pace as he did against Rothwell. I’ve been wrong about Arlovski before, so maybe I am again, but I’ll continue to avoid.
