This weekend the Cup series heads to New Hampshire after a much needed week and a half off. The post quarantine schedule has been brutal on these race teams and having a few days to themselves and to analyze data will definitely benefit every single team. Also this weekend there is only one race in the three series at the track as the Xfinity and Truck series have the weekend off. Don’t worry after this weekend we have 15 more races combined with all three series so the intense schedule will pick back up. New Hamphshire is a track that is just over one mile and is flat. You can compare results at Phoenix, Martinsville and somewhat Richmond. Using some of the data from the tracks we have seen them run on this year will help in our player pool analysis. As for strategy, I will probably looking right around 2 dominators for cash games and between 2-4 in gpps.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $10,700 FD $12,200)
If you remember Martinsville a few weeks back you will remember how most of JGR missed their set up and fell back fast. However if you recall, Martin Truex was able to recover and win that race leading over 130 laps. Now as we look at his history here at NHMS you will see that he has not finished outside of the top 7 in five straight races and has led over 100 laps in four of the last six races here. Truex also has a little place differential upside built in starting 11th.
Denny Hamlin (DK $10,400 FD $13,400)
I feel like every week I am highlighting Denny or Harvick. I almost wrote up Denny last week and all he did was go out and win the race. I am not going to make the same mistake this week. Denny starts on the front row with none other then Mr. Random Draw Always On the Front Row Aric Almirola. Well Aric has shown speed in recent weeks, I have to like Hamlin more. Hamlin dominated the race last year leading 113 laps and finishing second. Hamlin has also been very good at similar flat tracks like NHMS.
Jimmie Johnson (DK $8,700 FD $9,300)
Jimmie Johnson will start 20th for the fourth time in a row not counting the All Start race, random draw huh? Jimmie provides some place differential starting in this position though. Taking out last years 30th place finsih, Jimmie six finishes inside the top 14 including four top ten finishes. He has had finishes of 12th at Phoenix and 10th at Martinsville this season so far. He also has always been really good at Richmond. Well HMS has not shown the dominance of late, I like Jimmie to provide some upside on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney (DK $11,100 FD $11,600)
It wouldn’t be an article by me if I didn’t write up Ryan Blaney. Blaney has been the fastest car out there in multiple fashions and has been a staple near the front of the race for most of the race always ending up finding a reason why he can’t win in the end though. His track history here is good as well. He has three straight top ten finishes here and has had success at similar tracks like Phoenix and Martinsville as well. He starts 12th and has some pd upside but will need to score dom points to pay off his price on Draftkings but has good finish position upside for a site like Fanduel.
William Byron (DK $7,900 FD $8,500)
Byron started off the post break season hot and has seemed to plateau in recent weeks which has shown as he gets closer to the cut line for the playoffs. However he goes to a type of track where he has had success. At NHMS he has score two top 15 finishes. He also had a 10th place finish at Phoenix earlier this year and finished 8th at Martinsville scoring stage points in all stages and had top 11 green flag speed at both tracks as well. Starting 16th, I would love to see another top 10 finish out of Byron.
Austin Dillon (DK $7,400 FD $7,000)
Austin locked himself into the playoffs with his win in Texas a couple weeks ago. He now comes to a track where he has decent track history and a chance to build on what has been a really good season for him. Austin starts 23rd and has top 15 upside at NHMS on Sunday. His average finish here and at similar tracks is right around the 17th to 18th position. However with his improvements this season I have no doubts that he is capable of finishing closer to that 13th-15th range.
Any questions message Dave on twitter @davidjr831 and subscribe to the NASCAR package below for final thoughts, core and prop plays.