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NFL Sportfolio Strategist Picks: Week 6

Brett Matthew and Zach James, Lead strategists for BetKarma’s NFL managed sportfolios

Unfortunately, due to competing external obligations, Week 5’s performance breakdown and Week 6’s sportfolio strategist allocations will be kept to a minimum, with full, detailed peformance reviews and trade insights returning next week. Season-to-date, the NFL Core sportfolio, our flagship, risk-adjusted strategy, is +12.5%, supported by a 19-6 record. An approximate $100 bettor would have increased their bankroll approximately $1,250 since Week 1. Broadly speaking, the Aggressive and Multi-Sport Total Return sportfolios have returned +30% and +20%, respectively. Indeed, more granular performance analyses will be provided next week.

As we concluded our Week 6 preparation, several internal disagreements remained unresolved. Usually, as the week matures, we slowly weed out certain games and isolate 5-7 opportunistic sides. Unfortunately, this week, dual conviction never materialized in a convincing way. Instead, by Saturdy afternon, we still held rather strong contrasting opinions. In addition, there appears to be several sides that have commanded sharp money that we either disagree with or even have taken the opposite opinion. Separately, there are a couple sides we liked throughout the week, but that are entirely too beloved by the public to take with confidence. As such, this will certainly be our lowest volume week with respect to sportfolio allocations.

Core Strategy (risking 5.7% to return 5%):

  1. Rams -3: 1.1% to return 1%
  2. Texans +4.5: 1.1% to return 1%
  3. Redskins -3: 1.2% to return 1%
  4. Browns PK: 1.1% to return 1%
  5. Lions +4: 1.1% to return 1%

Conservative Strategy (risking 2% to return 3.1%)

  1. Texans +10.5/Titans+7.5/Chargers PK: 1% to return 1.5%
  2. Ravens/Redskins/Rams ML parlay: 1% to return 1.9%

Aggressive Strategy (risking 11.2% to return 13%)*:

  1. Rams -3: 2.2% to return 2%
  2. Texans +4.5: 1.1% to return 1%
  3. Redskins -3: 1.2% to return 1%
  4. Browns PK: 1.1% to return 1%
  5. Eagles +4: 1.2% to return 1%
  6. Lions +4: 1.1% to return 1%
  7. Panthers -2: 1.2% to return 1%
  8. Saints +3: 1.1% to return 1%
  9. Ravens/Redskins/Titans/Chargers ML parlay: 1% to return 4%

*please be sure to follow the Discord chat, as the Aggressive strategy will leverage live in-game wagering as well as dynamic hedging opportunities. 

Multi-Sport Total Return Fund Strategy

Please follow Brett Matthew and Zach James on Twitter at @nonrandomalpha and @golcondafund and the premium Discord chat for real-time trades throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro and will be active through to the NBA Finals).

Performance Reporting/Full Transparency

As promised, we will provide detailed post-hoc total and relative performance commentary every Wednesday – so please stay tuned.

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