Jaime’s EPL punts and pivots
August 11th Chelsea (-164) vs Huddersfield (+504)
Brighton (+229) vs Watford (+136)
Crystal Palace (+191) vs Fulham (+146)
Cardiff City (+340) vs Bournemouth (-115)
Everton (+224) vs Wolves (+131)
EPL is back! We here at DFS Karma absolutely dominated the World Cup and we are back to dominate EPL as well. To start the season we get a nice five game slate with Chelsea being the only big favorites on the slate. Bournemouth is the next biggest favorite on the board and after that everyone else is basically even. I believe the edge will come with some of the lesser known teams and while we want to have a few low owned guys I think having exposure to Chelsea and Bournemouth will be crucial. Here are my favorite Gpp plays of the slate.
Chelsea: Alvaro Morata $8,800
Chelsea comes in with the best odds for a win. Alvaro Morata should be fresh and ready to go after he was left out of the Spanish national team. Spain could have really used Morata in the world cup and I believe he took this snub personally and will show the world why he should have been Spain’s lead forward. He also gets a great matchup against Huddersfield who where 4 points away from relegation last year while allowing 58 goals. Morata does come with a low floor which makes him a gpp only play but with such a good matchup he will be the first forward I plug into my gpp line this week.
Also, consider Crystal Palace forward Wilfried Zaha $8,300 who could break the slate with a brace or even a hat trick against Fulham. Callum Wilson $6,600 is coming off a pretty good preseason and with Bournemouth being such big favorites he makes a lot of sense.
Everton: Gylfi Sigurdsson $6,400
Gylfi seems a little cheap for a guy that will be taking most if not all sets for Everton. Everton has made some great moves this off season and I expect them to have one of their best seasons in recent years. Everton comes into this game as slight underdogs which would mean that Everton finds themselves down early giving Gylfi plenty of opportunities to push up the field and cross the ball like a madman like he did many times last season. Gilfy is one of my favorite plays in the entire slate and he will definitely find his way into my main lineup.
Also, consider Chelsea midfielder Cesc Fabregas $7,600 who could find himself taking all sets for the biggest favorite on the slate if Willian $10,100 does not start as expected. If Willian does play it does take away some of the upside for Fabregas since they would be sharing sets. There is also a possibility that neither man starts which would make Pedro $6,600 an absolute lock. Tune in to our slack channel when lineups are released to see which way we want to go with the Chelsea mids. Brighton’s Pascal Grob $7,400 and Crystal Palace’s Andros Townsend $7,200 are also very solid plays at midfield. If you are multi entering I would definitely get exposure to both of them.
Bournemouth: Adam Smith $4,700
Bournemouth has the arguably the best matchup on Saturday. Adam smith took 22 shots last season scoring one goal and connecting on three assist. This is a gpp play because Smith has a pretty low floor for someone priced where he is. However Bournemouth does carry clean sheet upside and Adam Smith could add to that with peripherals and maybe connect on a goal or assist.
Also, consider Watford’s Jose Holebas $6,200 who is the highest priced defender on the slate but he does carry plenty of upside by accumulating peripherals via crosses and assists. If you do not have the salary to pay up at defender you could punt the position with Crystal Palace’s Sakho $3,100 or Bournemouth’s Nathan Ake $3,600
Everton: Jordan Pickford $4,600
Everton is the underdog in this game but I would not be surprised to see them get a win and maybe even with a clean sheet. Wolves should put pressure and get enough shots
at goal to give Pickford some good save upside. If you have the money to pay up at goalie you could go with Chelsea but if their new signing from Atletico Bilbao ends up starting he will not be in the player pool.
Final Thoughts: I think a lot will come down to who ends up in the Chelsea starting 11. It will be very important to tune in to our slack after lineups are released to see who we are definitely locking into our lineups. I will be building my gpp line around Morata and Gilfy and then probably adding another chelsea piece and Bournemouth piece. I am extremely happy to have soccer back! Let’s take some tournaments down for the karma nation and enjoy the beginning of the EPL season!