English Premier League 10/24/20
Champions League this week was a blast but now we are back with another action packed weekend of EPL games! 3 game slate on Saturday but back to the dreaded staggered starts. EPL really has to figure this out, because it makes it very unenjoyable as a DFS player. But you guys are here to read about the good news not the downer stuff, so let’s breakdown this 3 game main slate for Fanduel and Draftkings alike starting at 10am EST.
Fulham (+162) vs. Crystal Palace
Manchester United (+137) vs. Chelsea
Liverpool (-455) vs. Sheffield United
-We get a massive home favorite in Liverpool and then two slight home favorites in Fulham (line has moved a good deal) and Manchester United. There is plenty to discuss about these matchups so let’s jump into our Game by Game Breakdown.
Fulham vs. Crystal Palace-
Fulham have 0 wins on the new season but they did finally get a point last time out, although it was against another struggling squad on this slate in Sheffield United. There are a few guys that are still worth playing for the Cottagers, even in their unimpressive return to the top flight. Aleksander Mitrovic ($17/$8800) is the striker and can always get a few… his floor isn’t too bad as he’s had 20 shot attempts in his 4 starts, 7 of them on goal and 2 of them finding the back of the net. The guy I’m higher on though is Ademola Lookman ($14/$7400) who got his first start last week and produced their only goal. He also added 3 tackle and 3 chances created even to round out his game. I have a soft spot for Ruben Loftus- Cheek ($12/$3900) since he’s a former Blue, but he’s even a great value play on DK to get the bigger guns on the slate. Defensively Fulham are a mess, but Tosin Aderabioyo ($5) is min price on FD and that’ll help get the big F/M in. Alphonse Areola ($9/$4400) is a GPP play… he’s only allowed 2 goals in his last two starts but before that he let in 7 in two games… so you never know which guy can show up.
Zaha ($18/$8000) is going to be overlooked on this slate but has a great chance to be one of the top scoring forwards on the slate. He has 4 goals this season and scored last weekend. Michy Batshuayi ($16/$4900) is a great DK punt play for a forward who has a good shot at a goal or at least a few offensive peripherals. Andros Townsend ($14/$8700) has been really solid this season and his price continues to climb, I’m not excited about the play but it’s a GPP type play as he should be sub 10% owned on DK. Defensively we thought we were going to get a min price Gary Cahill on FD but he’s been ruled out. That kills that value play! Jairo Riedewald ($6) is the replacement punt but I don’t like it nearly as much. I’d rather try to find $4 and play Patrick Van Aanholt ($10/$5800) against a team that does like a nice open game and can be leaky. It would be his season debut but I think if he starts 90 minutes is not completely out of the question. Vicente Guaita ($10/$4800) was going to be a great play but no Cahill really hurts this backline. I still think he’s viable in Cash though.
Prediction: Fulham 1 – Crystal Palace 2
Manchester United vs. Chelsea-
Fresh off an emphatic victory in the Champions League away to Paris Saint-Germain, they look to keep the momentum rolling as they take on a team still trying to find its identity in Chelsea. Questions at the back are the big issues with United, but their attack of Marcus Rashford ($20/$8500) and Bruno Fernandes ($19/$10600) is always a potent one, even without suspended Anthony Martial. That means we could see the debut of Edison Cavani ($15/$7200) as Mason Greenwood ($16/$6200) isn’t 100% still. I’m more interested in a wing back as my second or third United piece though and that’s new signing Alex Telles ($12/$5100), who looked great in his nearly half an hour in Paris and even took 3 corners. Axel Tuanzebe ($5) was excellent mid-week and could start again as Harry Maguire ($10) is in a race to be fit but won’t be rushed back with Champions League next week too. David De Gea ($11/$5000) was unworldly in Paris; can he bring the same focus and form? He’s a good price on both sites for his save upside in the matchup but clean sheet could be difficult.
My Blues on the main slate again… what do you know?! They played Southampton to a tough and ugly 3-3 draw last weekend then dug in and held Sevilla to a 0-0 draw at home in the Champions League. This will be another big test for the new look Blues. Hakim Ziyech ($15/ $7900) may start? If he does, he won’t go 90 but he should share sets and be dangerous for the best price he probably ever will be. Timo Werner ($21/$8300) is Chelsea’s best striker and will be trouble for whoever is at CB for United. Kai Havertz ($18/$6800) has had some big moments this season and seems to rise to the occasion more often than the other secondary Chelsea pieces. Defensively this should be a game that the fullbacks earn their pay. Ben Chilwell ($15/$6100) has been electric and will have either a share or majority of sets depending on lineup and either Cesar Azpilicueta ($13/$4600) or Reece James ($11/$5400) are both less attractive but James is much cheaper on FD. Edouard Mendy ($8/$4600) has been a breath of fresh air as Lampard can finally feel a little safer with who’s in goal after the Kepa disaster.
-Prediction: Manchester United 3 – Chelsea 2
Liverpool vs. Sheffield United-
Biggest favorites of the slate by FAR, most expensive plays to boot make them a difficult stacking option, more so on DK than FD. Fresh off a surprising 1-0 victory away at Ajax in the Champions League, they will look to keep the results rolling in the EPL too. Mohammed Salah ($22/$11400) has the best goal scoring odds on the slate and will take some sets and PKs. Sadio Mane ($21/$11000) is the pivot and has big games but also disappears. Both only played 60 minutes mid-week so tired legs shouldn’t be an issue. Thiago ($10/$6700) is interesting if he starts but you’d have to leave lots of salary on the table just in case he isn’t quite ready to start. Andrew Robertson ($15/$7300) has finally usurped Trent Alexander-Arnold ($14/$7200) as the go to ‘Pool defender but honestly, you can’t go wrong with either one in this matchup. Adrian ($14/$5900) was stellar on Tuesday but I don’t imagine he sees enough shots to make a big difference and if he lets one in, it could be impossible to hit value.
The Blades are a mess…they were the darlings last season in their first year at the top flight but they have not been able to replicate those results as they have 1 point to their names so far on the season and sit 19th in the table. Jack O’Connell is out for the year so their defensive depth and cohesion will be put to the test even more. Rhian Brewster ($12/5200) is the newcomer up front and will need to help Oliver McBurnie ($17/$5600) somehow find the net. John Fleck is also out for a while so John Lundstram ($12/$5800) is viable for his set piece possibility, even in the low number they might get vs. Liverpool. I don’t love any of the defenders on DK at all, and really only Enda Stevens ($8) is worth it to me even in his wingback role. Both fullbacks get forward enough for Liverpool to really test Stevens defensively.
-Prediction: Liverpool 4 – Sheffield United 0
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel as well as checking out Luke’s Projection Portal (FREE!) https://www.dfskarma.com/soccer-projections-portal-epl-draftkings-2/