English Premier League 10/3/20
Last weekend was another great slate of games and Karma has continued to roll in the early parts of the EPL season! This weekend we get a 3-game slate on FanDuel but just a 2 gamer on DraftKings as they left off the late game. I’ll break down both sites, but as always remember I am more FanDuel oriented while Frosty and Luke crush the DraftKings sides of things for us. Be sure to check out their breakdowns in discord and follow their core plays.
Everton (-140) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
Leeds United vs. Manchester City (-300)
Newcastle United (+140) vs. Burnley
We have two home favorites here. There is one slight favorite in Newcastle, but Everton is a healthy favorite. Manchester City is a huge away favorite against Leeds who has really been fun to watch in this young season. I could go on more, but let’s jump into our Game-by-Game Breakdown for more info.
Everton vs. Brighton-
They are on the main slate again and MAN DO THEY LOOK GOOD!! Karma member and Everton fan-boy Garrett threw this little betting nugget out there in the chat today… Everton +15000 to win the title on Heritage Sports while Luke shared that they are +500 to win it all on Bovada but also +125 to finish top 6, which I think is an absolute lock. Everton snuck by a very good Palace team last Saturday and absolutely thrashed West Ham mid-week in the EFL Cup. Unfortunately, that thrashing had some injury repercussions as new signing Allan, left with a groin injury and is doubtful for this match as well as Richarlison who left early with an ankle issue. I doubt either start, and while that should hurt them a bit, Gylfi Sigurdsson ($12/$6600) could see his first start of the season. If you are going with an Everton stack, and I think I want at least a piece or two, you have to start with the man on fire, Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($20/$8100), who had ANOTHER hat-trick mid-week to add to his already ridiculous EPL start of 5 goals in 3 games. James Rodriguez ($17/$8300) looks like the steal of the summer and has been a huge reason for their success. He posted his lowest fantasy score last time out which I hope suppresses his ownership a bit because in this matchup he is a lock for 25 fpts on Fanduel, easy. As for defenders, Lucas Digne ($15/$6600) is still proving he is a top fullback and will be the option on the slate if you pay up. Seamus Coleman ($10/$4600) had a great game vs. Palace assisting a goal and has now topped 20 fpts two out of three times this season. As I’m sure you know by now, I despise playing Jordan Pickford ($12/$5500) but he is in a good spot and should see a decent amount of shots… you just have to hope they are within his T-rex arms reach.
The Seagulls have had a lack luster start to their campaign but their 2 losses are to Chelsea and Manchester United, so no real issue there. Their lone win so far was against Newcastle and was very convincing. I think this side is good enough to be middle of the table in the end, but they have not shown the consistency needed yet. If you like the Gulls chances, Neal Maupay ($16/$7700) is the man you must start with as he has looked sensational, 3 goals in 3 matches so far. Leandro Trossard ($15/$6900) and Solly March ($11/$5800) are excellent secondary pieces to a GPP stack. Each has had some very strong DFS games with March scoring last weekend vs. United and Trossard hitting double digits in each game including a goal and an assist so far this campaign. Defender wise Ben White ($7 FD only kind of play) has hit double digits his last two times out and should see plenty of action. Aaron Webster ($9) is also viable on FD for just a few bucks more but has similar numbers, hitting double figures in all 3 games so far. The fullbacks don’t interest me on Fanduel but on Draftkings Tariq Lamptey ($5300) has been moved to midfield which only interests me slightly as his clean sheet equity is gone but let’s be honest, probably wasn’t getting one in this match anyways. Mat Ryan ($8/$4000) should be busy back there but has only recorded 3 saves in 3 matches… so not quite sure I’d trust him much.
Prediction: Everton 3 – Brighton 1
Leeds United vs. Manchester City-
This team is fun! Sure they lost their first EPL game in ages but it was a 4-3 thriller vs. the defending champs Liverpool. They then had yet another 4-3 thriller but this time ending on the right side vs. fellow promoted side Fulham, and then most recently won 1-0 vs. Sheffield United, showing they are learning. Leeds had announced a big signing from Germany this week in Michael Cuisance but apparently he failed his physical so that deal seems to be off. Biggest news that matters in this game is that Jack Harrison is unavailable to play since he is a Manchester City player out on loan. So like I said, this team has been fun, 8 goals scored in 3 games and 7 goals conceded. The over/under for this game was 3.5 earlier this week. City is electric on offense but their defense leaves a lot to be desired so Leeds is definitely in play this weekend. Patrick Bamford ($17/$6000) has led the line and has done so effectively with a goal in every game and an assist in one as well. Secondary pieces of Mateusz Klich ($15/$5000) and Kalvin Phillips ($12/$5500) are definitely in play and Helder Costa ($9/$5400) has a brace to his name this season. Ezgjan Alioski ($7/$3900) has been announced as the replacement for Harrison so he could be a super cheap punt play. He’s more of a defender than a midfielder but has played there before. As for defenders, clean sheet is not in the cards but peripherals may be a plenty. Liam Cooper ($7) is way under-priced on Fanduel for a center-back on an underdog side. He put up 15.4 fpts last time out. If you want a more offensive play Luke Ayling ($13/$4000) is certainly in play as he has hit over 15 fpts in two of the three games. I have no real interest in Ilan Meslier ($9/$3800), but maybe worth the punt on DK for GPP.
Manchester City got THRASHED by Leicester City last weekend 5-2. They rebounded midweek with a 3-0 easy win over Burnley in the EFL Cup but their defense vs. teams that can pressure them is troublesome, so they brought in yet another big defensive signing in Ruben Dias ($3200 on DK, not in pool on FD) but I doubt he is ready to just step in. Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero remain out with injuries so it should be Raheem Sterling ($20/$9200) playing up top where I don’t love him. Kevin De Bruyne ($23/$11100) remains the best play on any slate, and Leeds is not the matchup to fade him. Even with his disappointing match vs. Leicester we’ve seen what he can do (67.8 fpts vs. Wolves), so don’t get cute. Riyad Mahrez ($22/$9800) got a price jump after I was all over him last weekend and was the only bright spot for City with a goal and an assist. I love him again as he should be locked in to the right wing spot. Phil Foden ($16/$7500) should start again but man has he been invisible most of the season. Ferran Torres ($13/$7200) started midweek and bagged his first goal, Bernardo Silva ($15/$7400) also played midweek after missing time with injury so Foden best step it up or he will quickly be replaced. Defenders are not great plays usually for City, Aymeric Laporte ($10) is the cheapest on FD and he doesn’t provide a ton of peripherals and is no lock to go 90 minutes or get a clean sheet. Even their fullbacks leave a lot to be desired with Benjamin Mendy ($12/$4400) and Kyle Walker ($11/$4800) as they are both mediocre plays. I never pay for Ederson ($13/$5900) and won’t once again this weekend especially in the form he is in- 2 saves and 6 goals against.
-Prediction: Leeds 2 – Manchester City 4
Newcastle United vs. Burnley –
I cannot figure this squad out! They look great vs. West Ham, cruising to a 3-0 opening weekend win, then get thrashed for 3 goals by Brighton and follow that up with a very impressive 1-1 draw to Tottenham where Darlow had 11 saves!! Give the man the match ball! So which Magpie squad will show up this week? They struggled midweek vs. Newport County in the EFL Cup, even with a pretty strong squad. That PK win result, does not give me a ton of confidence in them this week. Yet if you are inclined to play them, Callum Wilson ($18) is the man up top and apparently has penalty duties to boot. He now has 2 goals in 3 matches. Miguel Almiron ($13) has been more of a facilitator this season and is good for right around 10 fpts. Jonjo Shelvey ($9) is pretty cheap for a guy who should have most, if not all set piece opportunities. For defenders Jamal Lewis ($8) is super cheap and Burnley will allow plenty of opportunities for him to get forward. I also don’t mind Javier Manquillo ($10) but prefer Lewis. Karl Darlow ($11) was SENSATIONAL vs. Spurs and now has scores of 26, 4.5 and 30.5 on the season… he will not see anywhere near that amount of shots in this matchup but I think he gets a good shot at 3-4 saves and a clean sheet (possibly the only one on the slate).
What in the world is wrong with Burnley?! They were such a good defensive squad last season, and punished you on the long ball counters. Sure James Tarkowski has been out, and looks to still be, but come-on. They’ve lost 4-2 to Leicester City and 1-0 to Southampton while also getting swept aside 3-0 by Manchester City midweek in the EFL Cup. I liked this squad a lot last week, especially Chris Wood ($16) and Dwight McNeil ($14) and they both floundered but this is a good bounce back spot. Charlie Taylor ($8) and Kevin Long ($10) remain cheap defensive plays that have double digit safety with possible 15-20 point upside. Nick Pope ($7) hasn’t stopped anything this year with allowing 5 goals while only recording 3 saves. But he is cheap and allows you to fit some big guns up top.
-Prediction: Newcastle 1 – Burnley 0
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown, and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel as well as checking out Luke’s Projection Portal (FREE!) https://www.dfskarma.com/soccer-projections-portal-epl-draftkings-2/