English Premier League 11/6/20
Welcome back! We have 3 days of Premier League fun after two wild Champions League days. I got absolutely dusted on Tuesday, but Wednesday I came back and hit a solid score to make back some poor decisions from the previous day. Friday starts this 3 day fun with 2 games at 12:30pm and 3pm with both sites offering the slate. Let’s jump right into the two game break down this slate for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Brighton Hove Albion (-120) vs. Burnley
Southampton (-111) vs. Newcastle
-Two slight home favorites and neither game has a very high O/U either, so where will we find the edge? Let’s dive into our game-by-game breakdown for more info.
Brighton vs. Burnley-
Brighton sit 16th in the Premier League table and have not won a game in any competition for over a month (9/23 vs. Preston North End and 9/20 vs. Newcastle). They have 2 draws and 4 losses since those victories, and have conceded 14 goals, while only scoring 7. These losses look bad, but two of them were to Manchester United, one to Everton, and one to Tottenham, which are all top 6 teams in the league. Their draws show a better picture of where they are, Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion. Neither of those is great, but it shows they can hang with the lower tier teams and even middle of the road ones well enough. Burnley is dead last in the Premier League… 20th. They have yet to win a game in league and only have 1 point from 6 games. Ouch. Their last win was on the same day as Brighton (9/23 vs. Millwall). Their lone draw was a 0-0 snooze fest vs. West Brom. Burnley has scored a league tying low 3 goals scored with 19th place Sheffield United. They have conceded 12 during those 6 games.
With two game slates you have to play someone from this game, Brighton have a few attractive pieces and you won’t find them in a better matchup all year, at home to the last place team. Neal Maupay ($20/$9700) is set to return to the squad after missing last weekend’s game for unknown reasons. He is their best finisher and is very dangerous if given space. Same can be said about Leandro Trossard ($18/$7300), though he has struggled lately, the matchup and Maupay back will help him. If Pascal Gross ($8/$7700) starts, I like him a lot as he tends to take set pieces when on the pitch. Sounds like Solly March ($16/$6500) is doubtful to start, so Gross could be in on the wing. Tariq Lamptey ($13 defender/$6900 midfielder) is also questionable, but if he start,s he’s a great play for a wing back who loves to get forward. A cheap play if needed is on the other wing with Bernardo ($6/$3900), who had some good moments last year, but has not seen any real playing time so far this season. Mat Ryan ($12/$5100) is set to return between the pipes after a “mental rest” day vs. Tottenham. He’s been atrocious this season but like I said before, this is the best matchup of the season by far.
They are coming off a 3-0 loss to Chelsea. They allowed 9 shots on goal and generated next to nothing themselves with 0 shots on goal for the game. They are as offensively anemic as one can be it seems. Chris Wood ($16/$5200) and Ashley Barnes ($14/$4800) have a whopping 1 goal on the season between the two of them. The two guys I’d target offensively are Ashley Westwood ($13/$5600) and Dwight McNeil ($12/$6500). Neither have been all that impressive but Brighton is a good matchup, even for a poor offensive team. Defensively James Tarkowski ($14) remains the top floor point per dollar play on FD, while his back line mate should return in Ben Mee ($10/$2900) for the first time all season. They have excellent chemistry usually and this could really shore up their defense. Matthew Lowton ($4000) remains a nice cheap full back for DK purposes. Nick Pope ($9/$4000) will be back in net again. He should not be as under siege as last time out and has a better chance at a clean sheet or even a sneaky win. The issue is, at $9 he needs those things to hit value since the volume won’t be there for a safe save floor.
Prediction: Brighton 2 – Burnley 0
Southampton vs. Newcastle-
This is a tough one to get a good read on at first glance. Southampton sit 5th in the Premier league with 4 wins already on the young season, while Newcastle sit middle table in 11th, but only 2 points separate the two sides. Southampton has been surging, beating Aston Villa in a 7 goal thriller, beating Everton, tying Chelsea to name a few. Newcastle also beat Everton, and drew with Wolves of late.
Biggest part of this one is that star forward Danny Ings is out 4-6 weeks after a small knee scope this week. That will put more pressure on Che Adams ($18/$8500) and Shane Long ($17/$6700) to pick up the slack. James Ward Prowse ($22/$9300) is the engine that makes this team go and put two beautiful free kicks past Villa. He is the top play on the slate. Stuart Armstrong ($15/$6800) is also very interesting to me… I see myself with possibly 3 Southampton guys in my lineups even in the tough matchup. Defensively, Jannik Vestergaard ($15/$4200) is the safest play, as he gets defensive stats and has 2 goals to his name this year already. Jan Bednarek seems to be struggling with his concussion still, so Jack Stephens ($8) should see another start and is a great value play. Alex McCarthy ($13/$5400) is the top keeper on the slate price wise. This defense has not been so solid, and clean sheets are not guaranteed, especially against a solid opponent in Newcastle.
Newcastle has been good, but not great, and the biggest issue is they only have a few guys who provide consistent DFS type statistics. Callum Wilson ($19/$9000) has 6 goals already this year, 2 last time out (nailed that one!) and has been a really good signing for a team who lacked a true striker last season. Injuries seem to plague the rest of their playmakers. Allan Saint- Maximin ($14/$8200) seems set to return after subbing off with a “dead leg” but Matt Ritchie, Jonjo Shelvey and Dwight Gayle remain out for them. If Ryan Fraser ($9/$4800) gets dusted off and actually used, I love him in this spot as he should take set pieces. If he is not in, Sean Longstaff ($9/$5200) played well in a similar role last time out vs. Everton. Defensively, Newcastle doesn’t have a strong DFS attraction. On DK, Jamal Lewis ($9/$4100) is the play, while on FD, none of them really are solid, but Jamaal Lascelles ($10) is my favorite play. Karl Darlow ($8/$4200) is a great GPP play. He may be even a safe cash play as he has had at least 6.5 fan. pts on FD in his last 5 games with high scores of 30.5, 10.5 and most recently 13.5.
Prediction: Southampton 2 – Newcastle 1
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