English Premier League 11/7/20
Saturday Premier League returns once more before another International break. We have 3 games on the main slate while FanDuel also offers an all-day slate which includes the great Everton- Manchester United game at 7:30am EST. For this article though I will just focus on the main slate that locks at 10am EST. Let’s jump right into the game by game break down both FanDuel and DraftKings alike.
Crystal Palace vs. Leeds United (+145)
Chelsea (-278) vs. Sheffield United
West Ham United (-125) vs. Fulham
-One big home favorite in Chelsea, West Ham favored at home finally for once, and Leeds a slight favorite of what is the tightest match on the slate on paper. Let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Brighton vs. Burnley-
The odds are close and these two teams sit next to each other in the standings, each with 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses on the season. Palace are banged up in the back with Mitchell, Ward and Tomkins all set to miss out, while PK specialist Luka Milivojevic is suspended after his red card last time out. Leeds got thrashed 4-1 by Leicester but that was after their impressive demolition of, at the time, red hot Aston Villa.
Wilfried Zaha ($17/$9200) is the best bet for a goal for Palace and while his floor is relatively low, he has 5 goals on the season in just 7 games. Andros Townsend ($16/$9000) has been on fire this season and has seen his price rise immensely due to that. He only has 1 goal and 1 assist but has racked up peripherals like no other. Defensively on FD if Gary Cahill ($8) starts, he’s a good value play. Nathaniel Clyne ($3100) is a solid value on DK coming off a 5.8 score vs. Wolves. Vincente Guaita ($9/$4600) is an interesting play… Leeds love to shoot and he has games where he completely dominates… I think he’s more GPP than cash friendly.
Boom or bust squad here… they can explode at any point (ask Liverpool, Fulham and Aston Villa whom they all put at least 3 goals up against). Or they can be shut down, scoring 3 goals in the other 4 matches combined. Patrick Bamford ($20/$8100) is the main striker and even in a game they were dominated in vs. Leicester he still managed 16.5 peripheral points. He does have 6 goals in 7 games (3 vs. Villa) so he certainly knows where the net is! The main guys to set him up are Jack Harrison ($17/$7900) and Mateusz Klich ($16/$6100) and they will need to step up even more after Rodrigo has been the latest midfielder to be ruled out. I originally had Stuart Dallas ($14/$5600) in my lineup last week but swapped him out… and of course he scores. He’s the top defensive play on this squad, Liam Cooper ($11) or Robin Koch ($10) could be viable on FD but I don’t think Palace put enough pressure on them to have a massive day. GK Ilan Messlier ($10/$4900) is always a GPP play for me as this defense is not that sound.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – Leeds United 1
Chelsea vs. Sheffield United-
Chelsea come in to this one red hot, they’ve kept clean sheets in 5 straight games (3 in the Champions League). Meanwhile Sheffield sit dead last in the league with 1 point from 7 matches. Kai Havertz is out for Chelsea due to testing positive for Covid.
Timo Werner ($22/$8400) is starting to find his form and taking over penalty duty from Jorginho certainly boosts his attractiveness in DFS terms. He scored a pair of them midweek vs. Rennes. Hakim Ziyech ($17/$8700) was very quiet vs. Rennes after a huge game vs. Burnley with a goal and an assist. Pulisic remains out as well for the Blues so that means we could see Callum Hudson-Odoi ($12/$8000) or maybe they go with Tammy Abraham ($16/$7400) who is a tremendous pivot from Werner, especially on FD. Defensively, Ben Chilwell ($15/$6700) finally came crashing to earth vs. Burnley but his ceiling is sky high. Thiago Silva ($12) is a good play but not ideal as Sheffield are so anemic going forward. Cesar Azpilicueta ($12/$5300) may get another start here and is worth a shot as he plays both ways extremely well. GK Edouard Mendy ($14/$5800) is the top GK on the slate by far, and has kept all those clean slates for Chelsea since his debut.
DFS wasteland, they’re only DFS wasteland….. Alright so it’s not quite as good as The Who’s version but man, this team is not good right now. Only guy I feel comfortable with is Sander Berge ($10/$3000) since he has PK duty and is pretty cheap. Defensively, Max Lowe ($6/$2600) is the only real viable play since he is dirt cheap. Aaron Ramsdale ($6/$3800) is really cheap and honestly, he’s not a terrible play since he could definitely get 4-5 saves, maybe more.
Prediction: Chelsea 3 – Sheffield United 0
West Ham United vs. Fulham
This game is interesting for me… West Ham continues to disappoint and Michail Antonio remains out for the Hammers. Mark Noble also hit the sidelines for them. Fulham finally won a game vs. lowly West Brom last week but did it with a clean 2-0 win. Maybe this is the start of their competitive season?
Jarrod Bowen ($17/$7700) is tied for the team lead with 3 goals on the season and is always a threat, but just has not looked right of late. Pablo Fornals ($15/$5300) was a great swap by me last week as he scored vs. Liverpool but he does not have much of a floor. Tomas Soucek ($14/$4200) could be really busy since Fulham are free-flowing. Defensively, Aaron Cresswell ($13/$5500) should be fine to play and is an elite full back in this matchup. Fabian Balbuena ($14) is just as steady as they come for a CB. Vladimir Coufal ($11/$4300) finally had a down game vs. Liverpool but I wouldn’t chock that up to anything other than a tough matchup vs. the reigning champions. GK Lukasz Fabianski ($12/$5400) is in a good spot and may have the high ceiling than Mendy but is definitely riskier.
I really liked what I saw from them last week vs. West Brom. Yes, I know…. It’s West Brom, but they were organized and new CB Joachim Anderson ($8) looked like the real deal taking charge and being a brick wall, he is my top value play for defense on the slate. Offensively, Aleksandar Mitrovic ($16/$7800) remains the focal point of this offense, yet last game he turned to the role of helper as he had 2 assists, but failed to take even 1 shot. He usually averages over 4 a game. Ademola Lookman ($15/$7300) remains a solid signing for the squad and continues to produce. Tom Cairney ($11/$6900) is viable as he takes most sets for this squad and has some open play value as well. Value play alert is Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa ($10/$4000) who seems underpriced for how involved in the entire game he can be. Defensively, I mentioned Anderson already, but both full backs are great plays. Ola Aina ($13/$4900) scored last game, while I played Antonee Robinson ($12/$5200) who still produced but come-on! Alphonse Areola ($7/$4200) is probably my favorite cheap play on the slate as he looked much more comfortable with Anderson in front of him.
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://www.dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/