Welcome back to another Ram’s Randoms Premier League Breakdown edition!
We have another mid-week throwdown in the EPL with 3 games all kicking off at 1pm EST.
Manchester City (-800) vs. Newcastle United o/u 3.5
Sheffield United vs. Wolves (+115) o/u 2.0
West Ham United (-105) vs. Burnley o/u 2.5 (When I started this it was Even odds for West Ham… line moved a decent amount)
So it seems pretty clear cut… Man City are HUGE favorites at home… the other two games are dead even and have a goal or goal and a half less implied totals. Only issue is… you have to play someone other than just Man City! Let’s jump into the game by game breakdown!
Man City vs. Newcastle-
Might as well just jump into the huge -800 favorite City squad who, under Pep Guardiola, LOVE to rotate their squads. What does that mean? De Bruyne didn’t start on the weekend, so you assume he will tomorrow, but what midfielders start? Either or both Silvas? Mahrez/Sterling/Jesus? Foden? So hard to guess so I’ll just highlight them all really.
Top City plays:
KDB (Kevin De Bruyne if you don’t know by now) is the most expensive 11.7k/$22 play of the slate and deservedly so. He has full set piece duty and now has penalty duty too?! Goodness that is a lot of floor point potential. He had 12.5 fpts in 31 minutes as a sub on the weekend…. that’s insane. If he starts… start your lineup with him, simply put.
Riyad Mahrez– (10k/$20) is another elite play but his floor is limited with KDB in the lineup but his ceiling can be unlocked with the wizard pulling the strings for the forwards. I would guess he is pretty safe to start since he only went 59 minutes in their loss on Sunday.
Raheem Sterling– (8.9k/$19) is just as good of a play if not better than Mahrez in my opinion and he’s 1100 less on DK! His goal scoring ability is elite (13 on the season) and he can put them up in bunches.
Gabriel Jesus– (8.5k/$18) is the ultimate pivot play… his form has been atrocious… his goal scoring is desperately needed after Aguero went down for the year. Issue is… he went the full 90 on Sunday. We could see Sterling in the false 9 again if Jesus starts on the bench.
Phil Foden– (8k/$16) has been a favorite play of mine for a while but not his price has caught up with him. This kid is special and when he gets the opportunity he does not shy from the spotlight. He has 3 goals and an assist in his last two starts… that is production! I like him a lot as a pivot to one of the pricier City forwards but unless you punt a few other spots, you can’t get 3 of these top guys.
Bernardo/David Silva– ($7.9k/$14 and $7.5k/$15 respectively are both fine plays but I prioritize the elite guys over these two. Same would go for Gundogan (6.1k/$12)… just not enough production for the price.
Rodrigo- is a fine punt (3.6k/$11) but it’s exactly that…. a punt.
City defenders scare me… they can easily put up numbers, especially Cancelo/Mendy/Zinchenko even Walker too… but who starts is the bigger issue. Also price… you need a clean sheet or a goal/assist from them to hit value. Newcastle aren’t awful, so a goal is not far fetched but it’s a tough spot to be in if you want to pay up for the attacking pieces. You’ll have to pay down somewhere and defense is usually where I lean to do so.
Ederson is fine. Clean sheet with saves is likely…. but too pricey. at 5.9k/$13 he HAS to do those things to pay off his salary.
Newcastle Top Plays:
Matt Ritchie-… if he starts he’s a great play at only 6.5k/$12. He played 20 minutes over the weekend working his way back so a start is possible and they will need him since Saint Maximin is most likely out after his 2 assist day vs. West Ham.
Jonjo Shelvey- (if Ritchie is out) is a fine replacement at 6.2k/$12. He will takeover set pieces and has penalties too. Issue is… how much of the ball will Newcastle have and is it enough to get the set pieces for him to hit value… I’d take the no… probably not enough stance but one of these two is a good GPP place.
Miguel Almiron/Dwight Gayle– (6.1k/$15 and 5.5k/$16) purely GPP plays… but they both have been in good form but Almiron is fighting off an injury and Gayle is always one kick away from being hurt for 4 months.
Danny Rose– is a nice cheap fullback (3.4k/$10 if he starts. Or if they keep rolling out Emile Krafth (3.7k/$7) they are worth the punt to get some bigger guns in.
Martin Dubravka– is purely a GPP play and if you somehow fade City… he’s a must. 3.6k/$8 is not bad.
Sheffield vs. Wolves
Two teams that pride themselves on defense. The Blades have allowed the second fewest amount of goals in the Premier League (tied with Manchester United, 33) and Wolves have only allowed 36 goals for 5th best. Biggest issue though is that Sheffield have only scored 34, while Wolves have tallied 45 on the season. This game has an over/under of 2… which is just about as low as it goes for projections.
Sheffield Top Plays:
Oliver Norwood– A relatively good price for someone who just put up 10 crosses in oh wait just 54 minutes… that’s why he’s only 5k/$12. He should have most sets with Fleck and Lundstram both out.
Sander Berge– 4.5k/$11 has had the best form for the Blades, goal and an assist vs Tottenham last week. Followed it up with 7.4 fpts doing a little bit of everything on Sunday.
Lys Mousset– Draftkings is just trolling me…. 3.7k?! Oh if he starts that will be MIGHTY tempting. He doesn’t go 90… his floor is next to nothing but he has the pace to cause any defense trouble and unleashes shots from anywhere and everywhere.
Enda Stevens– (4.4k/$11) is a good value for an attacking wing back.
Dean Henderson– definitely a solid GPP goalie pick. 5 goals conceded in 4 games since restart isn’t amazing but he does have 15 saves in those games.
Wolves Top Plays:
Raul Jimenez– The #1 play for Wolves. He is their top goal scorer (15 on the season) but has had 2 rough games in a row. He is not cheap… 9.4k/$19 so he really needs to score to make value.
Adama Traore– The man-beast himself…. no one wants a piece of this man charging down the pitch. 8.6k/$12 he’s a GPP only play. Might not start, but he is a handful when he does. He doesn’t score much on FD unless he scores/assists as fouls drawn, shots and crosses aren’t scored, which is what he does a good amount of.
Joao Moutinho– 6.9k/$14 this is very cheap for a guy who is usually 8k in a neutral/favorite position. Like I said before, Sheffield are stout defensively but they do commit a good amount of fouls and Moutinho is the sole set piece taker for Wolves.
Ruben Neves– Worth a mention as a punt and if Moutinho isn’t in… he’s a great play. 3.4k/$11. Like much better on DK.
Wolves defenders are very pricey. Rui Patricio is 3rd highest priced goalie… seems like a decent value for a good defensive team vs. a sub par offensive team (5.2k/$12).
West Ham vs. Burnley
West Ham is slightly favored even though Burnley sit in 10th while West Ham sit in 16th only 4 points clear of relegation. But West Ham has been playing much better since the restart. Injuries play a large part on both sides here. Snodgrass, Haller, Anderson all out for WHU. Lowton, Barnes, Mee and Cork all out for Burnley.
West Ham Top Plays:
Jarrod Bowen– Who you say? This kid has played just 8 Premier League games and is now $9.5/$17. Wow. Numbers don’t lie though… back to back 20 point games. 3 assists in those games vs. Newcastle and Chelsea so not shabby defenses either.
Michail Antonio– He also has been on fire last two games, 2 goals and an assist. He is 8.3k/$18 so a little more affordable on DK and I prefer him to Bowen there, but Bowen over Antonio on FD.
Tomas Soucek– I have to mention him because he has a goal in each of the last two games… as a defensive midfielder. But at 5.7k/$13 he really has to score to hit value because he doesn’t do much else.
Hammers defense isn’t great value. Aaron Cresswell/Ryan Fredericks are the way to go on DK (4.9k and 4.5k) while Angelo Ogbonna is the better play on FD ($8).
Not a fan of Lukasz Fabianski either as he’s conceded 2 goals in all 4 games since restart.
Burnley Top Plays:
Dwight McNeil– Best offensive player on Burnley… Wood being back would help take some pressure off of him. But he is pricey (9.1k/$16 for McNeil and 8k/$13 for Chris Wood.
Jay Rodriguez has played well but doesn’t interest me, Ashley Westwood has been fine and is affordable at 6.4k/$12.
Kevin Long– Best value defensively on the whole slate I think. 2.7k/$7. Mee is out so he should start.
Nick Pope– He’s been great. If we take away that Man City thrashing (I mean… it’s Man City) he’s allowed just 1 goal in 3 games. At 4.3k/$7 he’s a great value.
Oh and don’t think I forgot the extra game that Fanduel has added to their slate!
3:15pm Brighton Hove Albion vs. Liverpool (-175)
Brighton vs. Liverpool
This game is not very exciting. Brighton are good defensively at home and Liverpool looked better vs. a sad Aston Villa squad but still not as dangerous as earlier in the season.
Brighton Top Plays:
Aaron Mooy– $13, set pieces on a home team… that’s all I got. He does get tackles and interceptions too.
Lewis Dunk– $13, CB on a big underdog… has scoring ability too… sometimes on his own net.
Tariq Lamptey– $6, he won’t go 90 but he might get 10 points for cheap, cheap but he’s in the late game so if you don’t save extra money… you’re dead.
Liverpool Top Plays:
Sadio Mane $21, Mo Salah $20 both very much in play but not my favorite spot on the slate. Jordan Henderson at $11 is nice value but he hasn’t been as impressive since restart.
All defense and Allison ($14) are in play but don’t love any of them a lot.
For updated information and lineup construction make sure you check out Luke’s Projection Portal at https://www.dfskarma.com/soccer-projections-portal-epl-draftkings-2/ and join us in the Karma Discord!
Until next time,