Welcome everyone. Soccer is starting to heat up and we get a nice slate with no Manchester City. All of the games are fairly close and Everton is the biggest favorite…who would have thought. Everton is barely a -166 favorite meaning all other games are basically pick em. This is good for people that put in the work since there is no clear path this week. This week I will probably build my cores around 2-3 of the studs of the slate and then find value around all the close games.
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Now onto the hat trick:
The lock of this slate to me is Gylfi Sigurdsson $9,600. Everton seems to realize that running their offense through Gylfi is the best way to get some wins. He has a lot of their set pieces and he has a lot of value on the open play. He is the first player in my lineups.
In the middle range my favorite play is Arnautovic $8,300. Yes, that is a steep price to play for him but his price is relative to the slate that we have. We are working on some of our own projections and our Beta testing predicts taking 11 shots. While I don’t think he will take 11, the point is that he is in a smash spot.
Another guy that just keeps popping off on our projections is $5,500 Issac Success. He is coming off a goal where he scored a goal but he still had 13.50 points without the goal. I will definitely take 13.50 DK points for $5,500.
Last week I really wanted to fit Maddison but luckily we couldn’t pay his high price. This week he is just a little lower at $8,900. He is in an even better matchup against Cardiff on a ultimate narrative game. If you did not know, Leicester owner lost his life in a helicopter accident leaving the last Leicester City game. To not make the Hat trick too long and too sad, he was an amazing man that brought a title to a team that was 500-1 to win. While Maddison was not on the team that won the title, I strongly believes that Leicester puts up a show. Others: Mane, Milner, Murphy.
Johan Berg Gudmunsson $7,100 is in a good matchup against West Ham. Even in a 4-0 L to Chelsea e was able to piece together 6.3 DK points. He should be able to outperform that.
On the other side of the Leicester game, I love $4,900 Camarasa. He struggled a lot against Liverpool but ‘pool is a very good defensive team. Leicester will allow Camarasa to score more peripherals.
I can’t believe Digne is $6,900! We have been playing him since he was around 4k but now he reached the point where I am not sure if I can roster him. For $500 less I prefer Holebas.
Chillwell is correctly priced at $5,600 and he does give us some small salary relief from the top plays. This seems like the slate where I will be playing the cheapest fullbacks I can find.
Speaking of cheap fullbacks, DeAndre Yedlin is only $3,900 and he is part of that #USA narrative. He is coming off back to back 6.8 DK points performances and I will be extremely happy with that amount for 3.9k in this slate.
This is definitely NOT the slate to pay $5,600 for the highest priced goalkeeper. However, we do get a nice discount on Alisson $5,000 against Arsenal. I am not scared of Arsenal as a attacking machine, but I do like that they should have enough shots to increase Alisson save opportunities.
Etheridge $4,500 is at home and he will have a good amount of save opportunities.
In the basement we have Matt Ryan and Joe Hart. They are both away but if I had to pick one I would go with Hart since I will want Everton exposure.
There are couple of straight bets that I like this week. I like the over 2 ½ on the Everton v BHA game and I also like Liverpool -112.
If you want to do a small parlay, do: Everton -1, Tottenham +132, Leicester City +117, Liverpool -.5, West Ham -.5, for a 31x multiplier.
If any of my advice helped, please don’t forget to tweet @DFS_Karma and me @FrostyDFS!