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Brian’s CFB DFS Game Theory 8/28/20

We are excited to bring you our CFB DFS Game Theory. This piece of content is created to help break down each slate and label plays into four, very easy to follow categories: Cash, safe GPP/upside, low owned GPP, and fades. Utilizing this piece of content, along with other DFS Karma CFB content, will help make your lineup construction more effective and lead you to being a more consistent DFS player.

 

QB RB WR Top Stack
D. Thompson-Robinson R. Rivers K. Phillips UCLA
A. Martinez C. Brown J. Smart Fresno State
J. Haener B. Brown C. Turner Nebraska
C. Corderio G. Ervin C. Ross Hawaii
B. Peters D. Hunter O. Manning UCONN

*Depending on your mobile device, you might need to tilt it sideways to view the full table*

 


Slate Thoughts:

 

Week 0

Finally! College football season is among us, and we have a nice little slate of games this weekend to get the CFB season rolling.  There are tons of huge games next weekend, but before we get there we get to watch the UCLA Bruins, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Cornhuskers and Fresno State Bulldogs take the field.  There are three games on this main slate, and all three should be very friendly to us in terms of fantasy production.  Before getting into my thoughts about the slate, it is important to remember that any sack on a quarterback counts as negative rush yards for that quarterback.  Pure Pocket passers that do not offer the dual threat ability have a higher likelihood of picking up a few sacks and hurt your overall fantasy production.

Nebraska (-7) @ Illinois : O/U 54.5

The first game of the day is going to be a conference matchup between the Nebraska and Illinois.  This is a game has the lowest over/under on the slate, sitting at just 55.  Even though it comes in with the lowest projected game total, there are still some guys that we should be considering here.  First we have Adrian Martinez under center for this cornhusker team.  Martinez is a duel threat guy that struggled early on last season, getting benched, but was able to come back late in the season and finish in very strong fashion.  During his tenure at Nebraska, Martinez has struggled with turning the football over.  Hopefully he takes a step in the right direction this year and limits the turnovers.  No one has ever doubted his playmaking ability, and he gets a great opportunity to create plenty of plays vs. a Illinois defense that struggled last year, especially vs. the run, allowing over 230 rush yards per game last year.  I love the price we get Martinez at this weekend, and though his floor is pretty low, due to the turnover issue, he has a ceiling that matches any quarterback on the slate.  Gabe Ervin, a freshman, has been drawing really good reviews early in fall camp.  He, as of now, is listed as the starting running back going into game week.  Even if it is more of a committee role with Markese Stepp, which I fully expect will be, at his price of only 4.1k on DK he is a solid value play vs. a team that struggles to defend the run. If you are looking to pair up a WR with Martinez, I would look towards Omar Manning who is slated to be the starting X receive this season.  I also believe you can play Martinez naked, and not pair him with a WR due to his ability to run the ball.

On the others side of this game we have an Illinois team that does not really have much that jumps out to me, in terms of fantasy production.  I would say the top two plays from this squad are going to be Chase Brown at running back, and Brandon Peters at QB.  Peters offers some dual threat ability, and is always a threat to pick up 6 on the ground.  I like the Nebraska side much more here, than I do Illinois.  However, I do find Brown and Peters both viable plays on a slate like this one.

Uconn @ Fresno State (-27.5) : O/U 63

The next matchup is going to be one sided.  Fresno State will be taking on Uconn in what should be a beat down in favor of the Bulldogs.  Their are a few plays that I really like in this one, the top being Ronnie Rivers.  Rivers led this Fresno State team in rushing last season, and looks to do the same this year.  In only six games last season, Rivers carried the ball 100 times, averaged 5.1 ypc and scored 7 touchdowns.  He also added in 265 yards receiving with an additional 2 touchdowns.  He is one of the strongest RB plays on the slate, and will be a lock for me.  They should run away from this game, and do so by pounding the rock with Rivers.  Other than Rivers, I believe you can look towards the Bulldogs quarterback, Jake Haener.  Haener had an impressive shortened season last year, throwing for over 2000 yards in only 6 games, for an average of 336 yards.  He also threw for 14 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions.  This game is expected to be a blowout, so you will need Haener to produce early and often to pay off his price tag.  He should have no problem putting up impressive numbers vs. this Huskie defense.  Haener offers some rushing upside, but not as much rushing upside as a Martinez, Peters or Thompson-Robinson.  As for Uconn, I really do not want much, if anything from their side.  I do believe they will be throwing the ball a ton, playing catch-up here.  For this reason, Cameron Ross is someone I may consider at his sub 5k price tag.  He is Uconn’s top WR, and should be targeted a ton in this matchup.

Hawaii @ UCLA (-18) : O/U 68

This game presents the highest total on the slate, and should provide plenty of great fantasy targets for us.  The top play in this game is going to be Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  DTR is a very capable passer and a threat to run as well.  He accounted for 1120 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in only 5 games last season.  He also added in 306 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.  He should have plenty of opportunities to display is unique skill set vs. a poor Hawaii defense.  Hawaii allowed over 210 rush yards per game last year and and over 200 pass yards per game.  I love the rushing upside that DTR has in this matchup, and he will be my top QB play on the slate this weekend.  At the RB position you have Brittain Brown and Zach Charbonette (Michigan Transfer) who are expected to share the workload in this offense.  Brown is currently listed as the starter however.  Both guys come in priced in the mid 5k range and are solid options on a 3 game slate, vs one of the worst run defenses on the slate.  UCLA has a few pass catchers that make for intriguing stacks with DTR.  Chase Cota, Kyle Phillips, Kam Brown and Greg Dulcich are all viable stacking options with DTR, and all are strong one offs as well.  Cota is expected to have a much larger role in the offense this year, and we get him at a much lower price than those of Kyle Phillips and Greg Dulcich.  One more name to watch for that has generated plenty of buzz in fall camp is Matt Sykes, who is also a WR.  He comes in priced at only 3.4k, and could be a GPP flyer for your squad.

On the other side of this matchup we have a Run and Gun Hawaii squad, who also have their fair share of fantasy relevant plays this week.  In terms of passing defense, UCLA ranked 113th nationally last year allowing 275 pass yard per game.  I look for Hawaii to attack this UCLA squad through the air, making guys like Chevan Corderio, Jared Smart, Nick Mardner and Calvin Turner really interesting options.  Corderio had a really solid season last year, throwing for over 2000 yards and 14 touchdowns.  He also accounted for 485 rush yards and 7 rushing touchdowns last season.  He is a dual threat guy, that is able to make things happen when the pocket breaks down.  I love the idea of a game stack here, due to the high likelihood of a shootout.  Mardner, Smart and Turner are slotted to start out wide for the Rainbow Warriors.  Turner is an interesting option because he is listed as the starting RB/WR, but is expected to see most of his time in the slot.  However, with the chance that he does see a few carries out of the backfield he comes with a much higher ceiling than most. Turner and Mardner would be my top two stacking options with Corderio.  Dae Dae Hunter is listed as the starting RB and is priced at only 4.4k.  He is a solid value play on this short slate, and is also playing in the best game environment on the slate.  Overall this is a game you will want multiple pieces from.

Good luck tomorrow guys. Click the button below to join today and gain access to all of our Core Plays!    

 

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