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CFB DFS Game Theory: Week 4 (9/25)

We are excited to bring you our CFB DFS Game Theory. This piece of content is created to help break down each slate and label plays into four, very easy to follow categories: Cash, safe GPP/upside, low owned GPP, and fades. Utilizing this piece of content, along with other DFS Karma CFB content, will help make your lineup construction more effective and lead you to being a more consistent DFS player.

 

QB RB WR Top Stack
M. Cunningham T. Badie R. Roberson Jr. Utah State
M. Duggan Z. Evans K. Shakir SMU
T. Mordecai B. Corum K. Boutte LSU
M. Johnson Bijan Robinson D. Thompkins MSST
W. Rogers W. Shipley X. Worthy Texas

*Depending on your mobile device, you might need to tilt it sideways to view the full table*

 


Slate Thoughts:

Week 4

Quarterback

  • This slate offers us a few high priced quarterback options that are in really strong spots.  First we have Max Duggan who is facing an SMU team that has some glaring holes in their defense.  Over SMU’s first three games they have allowed 367 pass yards per game, and over 125 rush yards per game.  Duggan is a dual threat guy that can create a lot of explosive plays both on the ground and through the air.  In TCU’s last game, Duggan had 19 rush attempts for 71 yards and a touchdown.  He is priced really high, but in a game that has one of the highest totals on the slate, he makes tons of sense in all formats.
  • Malik Cunningham facing a Florida State team that is really struggling right now.  Cunningham, like Duggan, is a dual threat quarterback that can deliver explosive plays on the ground.  Anytime this Louisville team is inside the 10 yard line, Cunningham’s dual threat ability is tough for teams to defend. FSU is allowing over 300 pass yards per game this season, and over 130 rush yards per game.  Look for Cunningham to have a big game here, and is a guy that can also be used in all formats.  On this slate, you could even pair both Cunningham and Duggan together in your main lineup.
  • Max Duggan is not the only Max that I want to target on this slate.  Max Johnson is someone that I really like this weekend.  I feel like this Mississippi State vs. LSU game is going to be a sneaky shootout spot.  Max Johnson has attempted 35 or more pass attempts in 2 of LSU’s 3 games.  He has a 65% completion percentage and has thrown for 863 yards, 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.  Mississippi State has had a stout rush defense early on this season, so I fully expect LSU to attack them through the air.  Why wouldn’t you when you have a stud wide receiver like Boutte to throw too.  Will Rogers from Mississippi State is also an option here.  He attempted 60+ pass attempts in the Bulldogs last game, so he definitely is getting the opportunities to produce.
Others to consider: T. Mordecai (SMU); L. Bonner (punt-UTST); W. Rogers (MSST); T. Shough (TTU)

Running Back

  • Tyler Badie has had an extremely strong start to his season this year, running for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns over three games.  He has also added in 15 receptions for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns over that same span.  He gets a solid matchup vs. Boston College this weekend, in a game that could have some sneaky shootout potential.  I see Missouri really leaning on Badie here.
  • Another back that I am really high on this weekend is Zach Evans.  Evans, who came out of high school as the top running back in the nation, is finally finding his footing with this TCU squad.  In his last game he finished with 22 rushes for 190 yards and a touchdown.  If he is going to see that type of workload on a weekly basis, he will continue to put up huge stat lines.  Like Badie, we get Evans at really affordable price this weekend, and if his workload continues to stay around 25 touches, it will not take long before we see his price get over the 7k mark.  Evans and Badie are both in strong consideration as core plays for me this weekend.
  • Blake Corum has looked absolutely dominant this season for Michigan.  Michigan has really focused on playing to their strength, which is running the ball with Corum and Haskins, and it has payed off big time for them.  Both Corum and Haskins are averaging around 15 touches per game this season.  Corum however, is the more explosive of the two.  Corum is averaging 8.7 ypc this season, and has been absolutely dominant in the red-zone.  Through only three games Corum has accounted for 8 total touchdowns (7 rushing, 1 receiving).  Corum is a strong play this weekend, especially vs. a Rutgers team that does not have the bodies up front to stop this powerful Michigan run game.
Others to consider: C. Tyler Jr. (UTST); W. Shipley (CLEM); K. Milton (UGA); J. Mitchell (LOU); B. Robinson (TEX)

Wide Receiver

  • SMU comes into this matchup vs. TCU with one of the top ranked passing attacks in CFB.  They have played some pretty bad teams so far this season, however, there is no denying the fact that they have explosive athletes all over the field that can make big plays, and a quarterback that is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now.  My top WR option from SMU this weekend is Reggie Roberson Jr.  Roberson Jr has seen his targets and receptions increase each week this year as he slowly returns from the knee injury he suffered last year.  Roberson Jr is going to be a key piece to this offense this season, and I expect him to heavily targeted going forward.  The great thing about Roberson is that we get him at 4.5k compared to Danny Gray at 7.1k and Rashee Rice at 6.3k.  That is great value, and someone who I have locked in as a core play for me this weekend.  Gray and Rice are still really strong plays here, I just like the savings I get with Roberson.  Consider stacking them with Mordecai in tournaments.  They will be throwing a lot in this game.
  • Another wide receiver that I am high on this weekend is Kayshon Boutte.  Boutte is the leading receiver for LSU, catching 20 balls for 224 yards and 6 touchdowns.  Max Johnson likes to look for Boutte early and often, and in a game that I expect to be going back and forth, Boutte has a chance to put up big numbers here.  His last two performances have been, ok, but in this environment I am expecting something a little closer to what we watched him do vs. UCLA.  I really like a Max Johnson, Kayshon Boutte and Deion Smith stack in gpps this weekend.
Others to consider: J. Walley (MSST), J. McGriff (UTST), D. Thompkins (UTST), K. Shakir (Boise); CT Thomas (Punt-Boise); M. Polk (MSST)

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