Over Under 2/2 – New York Mets/Atlanta Braves
The New York Mets strikeout as a team at an extremely high right, but not the lineup they are using tonight against a right-handed pitcher. Overall, they rank fourth last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Gausman posted seven strikeouts in seven innings in his first start this season, but the matchup against the Miami Marlins was significantly better than the matchup tonight. New York comes with quite a bit of firepower throughout their lineup, as well, and Gausman could potentially see limited innings if he struggles early in this game. Steven Matz has seen his swinging strike percentage increase from 9.2% last season to 11.3% early this season. While that may drop a bit as the season continues, Matz still owns a career 8.4 K/9. The Atlanta Braves have a strong offense, but they rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and Matz can take advantage of that. I wouldn’t go too much higher in this prop, but he may need only five innings to hit the over, which is the most likely scenario tonight.
Play $50 on Kevin Gausman UNDER 5.5 strikeouts and Steven Matz OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $120.50 (2.41x)
Over Under 2/2 – Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants
Jon Gray has always featured plus strikeout stuff, recording a career 9.5 K/9. He also owns an outstanding career 11.3% swinging strike rate. The San Francisco Giants lineup is roughly average on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, but this is a plus situation for Gray. The matchup against a weak offense in a pitcher friendly stadium will allow Gray to throw deeper into this game. He simply comes with too much strikeout potential to project under six strikeouts in 6+ innings against the Giants. Jeff Samardzija has been dealing with injuries over the last year or so, and his strikeout rate has dropped to only a 6.0 K/9 since the beginning of 2018. People seem to forget that prior to those injuries, Samardzija posted an 8.2 K/9 throughout his career. It’s a bit of a concern that his strikeout rate is still low, but his swinging strike percentage has increased to 8.5% from 7.9% last season, and that could continue to increase throughout the season. Most importantly, Samardzija gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Similarly to Gray, I expect Samardzija to throw somewhat deep into this game, and his total is a bit low for the potential he comes with in this matchup.
Play $50 on Jon Gray OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Jeff Samardzija OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $120 (2.4x)
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