Over Under 2/2 – Houston Astros/Texas Rangers
This play is more about Shelby Miller than it is about Justin Verlander. Miller has thrown in nine total games since the start of the 2017 season. In those games, he struggled with a 6.87 ERA, although he did post a 9.2 K/9. I expect his K/9 to drop closer to his career average (7.5) this season, and it starts tonight. Miller gets a matchup against the Houston Astros, who rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. He also threw only 8.2 innings over four Spring Training starts, suggesting he won’t throw deep into this game. Furthermore, Miller could easily get hit in the first few innings, shortening his outing even more. There are far too many factors working against Miller to hit the over, even at such a low number. Houston is a team that gets the most out of their pitchers in terms of strikeouts, and that has been the case with Verlander. He posted his highest K/9 (10.1) with the Detroit Tigers in 2009. In his first full season with the Astros, his K/9 sat at a ridiculous 12.2. The Texas Rangers own the second highest strikeout per at-bat on the slate, and Verlander threw 102 pitches in his first game this season. Stamina will not be a concern, and he makes an elite strikeout option tonight.
Play $50 on Justin Verlander OVER 8.5 strikeouts and Shelby Miller UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $126.50 (2.53x)
Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners
There’s no good way to get a read on Trevor Cahill’s strikeout rate, as it has ranged from a 4.5 K/9 to an 11.6 K/9 at times. Overall, it sits at only a 6.7 K/9, but it has been up a bit in recent years. Tonight, he gets a tough matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who rank seventh last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. In his first game this season, Cahill recorded only three strikeouts over six innings (86 pitches) against the Oakland A’s. He should see a similar workload tonight, and I’m not ready to predict Cahill at a 9.0 K/9 against a team that makes strong contact. Marco Gonzales has never been known for an elite strikeout rate, as he enters this game with a career 7.6 K/9. He has played in two games this season, recording four strikeouts in each game, while throwing 5.1 and 6.0 innings. More importantly, the Los Angeles Angels rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and Gonzales likely isn’t going to work overly hard to find strikeouts against a team with tremendous contact against lefties. He’ll likely throw around 90-100 pitches tonight, but I expect him to struggle to find strikeouts in this matchup.
Play $50 on Trevor Cahill UNDER 5.5 strikeouts and Marco Gonzales UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $128.50 (2.57x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
