Over Under 2/2 – Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies
Julio Teheran has proven to be more of a strikeout threat this season, recording seven strikeouts in only five innings in each of his first two starts. He has also seen his swinging strike percentage increase from 11.2% to 14.8% this season, which is well above his career average of 10.5%. He also owns a career 25% K% against right-handed batters, as opposed to a 17% rate against lefties. Teheran gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who are expected to use six righties in their lineup tonight. They also lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and Teheran will see ample opportunities to hit the over tonight. Kyle Freeland is coming off of a dominant 10 strikeout percentage in only 4.1 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, but I don’t expect him to be able to sustain that strikeout rate. He owns a 7.2 career K/9 with an 8.4% swinging strike percentage. He also gets a tough matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who in the bottom-six on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. The main issue with the over is that nothing good happens for pitchers when batters put the ball in play in Coors. With his inability to record strikeouts, Freeland could struggle to pitch deep into this game, and that would be the only way he can find the over tonight.
Play $50 on Julio Teheran OVER 4.5 strikeouts and Kyle Freeland UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $123.50 (2.47x)
Over Under 2/2 – New York Yankees/Houston Astros
Justin Verlander owns an interesting prop. Since joining the Houston Astros, his K/9 sits well above 11.0, but it sits at 10.6 through two games this season. He gets a plus matchup against the New York Yankees in his home stadium, but the over may simply be too high. I wouldn’t expect Verlander to throw more than seven innings tonight, and he’d need a 12.6 K/9 to hit the over if that were the case. This play has virtually nothing to do with Verlander, and more to do with the total being set too high. The same can be said for Masahiro Tanaka, but with the total being set two low. He owns five and seven strikeouts in his first two games, while posting roughly a 9.0 K/9 on the season. His swinging strike percentage is sitting at 12.9% , which is 0.1% below his career average. The Houston Astros feature the lowest strikeout per at-bat on the slate, but Tanaka will be throwing in a pitcher friendly stadium, potentially limiting their offense. This is important because it will help his ability to throw deep into the game, allowing him to find strikeouts. Five total strikeouts simply isn’t a lot for someone with Tanaka’s talent, and we can take advantage of that.
Play $50 on Justin Verlander UNDER 9.5 strikeouts and Masahiro Tanaka OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $124.50 (2.49x)
Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
