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Over Under 2/2 – New York Mets/Miami Marlins
Noah Syndergaard has seen plenty of ups and downs in terms of strikeouts this season, as he owns 7+ strikeouts in four of his nine games. He owns a 25.6% strikeout and 11.3% swinging strike rates in 2019. He has thrown 100+ pitches in each of his last four games, while throwing eight and nine innings in two of those contests. He gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank second last in team wOBA, while entering this game with a 2.9 implied run total. Syndergaard should be able to pitch deep into this game, and finding them of strikeouts on the way. Sandy Alcantara’s strikeout rate is down significantly this season, as it sits at only 14.1%. With that being said, his swinging strike rate is up to 10.9%, suggesting he’ll see positive strikeout regression as he throws more innings. He gets a plus matchup against the New York Mets, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They’re also an average team in team wOBA on this slate, and feature an implied run total of only 4.1 runs. Alcantara is far from an elite pitcher, but he has found 5+ strikeouts in four of his eight starts, and he should find similar success in this game.
Play $50 on Noah Syndergaard OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Sandy Alcantara OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $121.50 (2.43x)
Over Under 2/2 – Milwaukee Brewers/Atlanta Braves
Mike Foltynewicz has struggled to produce strikeouts in 2019, as his strikeout rate has dropped to 14% through four starts. With that being said, he owns a 10.2% swinging strike rate, and he’s expected to see positive strikeout regression as the season continues, similarly to Sandy Alcantara. Foltynewicz gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have featured a strong offense, but also lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Foltynewicz could pitch deeper into this game, as he’s expected to see positive regression on his fly ball and HR/FB rates, but he has struggled throughout four starts early this season, which is a major concern. Brandon Woodruff is a pitcher that has looked outstanding in 2019. He has posted 6+ strikeouts in seven of his nine starts this season. Woodruff also owns a 28.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.9% swinging strike rate. He gets a plus matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. The biggest concern in this game is the Vegas line, but both pitchers could still find strikeouts, even if they are struggling.
Play $50 on Mike Foltynewicz OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Brandon Woodruff OVER 5.5 strikeouts to win $116.50 (2.33x)
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