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Over Under 2/2 – Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals
Max Scherzer has performed well this season, but his 2.89 xFIP and 3.00 SIERA suggest he has gotten a bit unlucky. He enters this game with 32.4% strikeout and 16.4% swinging strike rates. Scherzer also owns a 37.6% strikeout rate against right-handed batters, and the Miami Marlins feature seven right-handed batters today. Miami also ranks second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. In their only matchup this season, Scherzer needed only 5.1 innings to record nine strikeouts, and he’s likely to throw deeper into the game today. As much as I dislike Jose Urena as a pitcher, this is a buy-low situation. He has posted 4+ strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. His strikeout rate sits at only 15.4% this season, while he owns an 8.8% swinging strike rate. Urena has thrown at least six innings in seven consecutive starts, as well. The Washington Nationals don’t strikeout at a high rate, but four strikeouts is an absurdly low projection, assuming Urena can find his normal six innings.
Play $50 on Max Scherzer OVER 8.5 strikeouts and Jose Urena OVER 3.5 strikeouts to win $135 (2.7x)
Over Under 2/2 – Detroit Tigers/Baltimore Orioles
Gabriel Ynoa is expected to be used as an opener today. This will be his first start on the season, but he has yet to throw more than 3.1 innings in any of his nine games. He has posted the highest strikeout rate (22.5%) of his career thus far, although he has posted the lowest swinging strike (9.2%) of his career. He gets a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. With that being said, I don’t expect Ynoa to throw deep into this game, and Detroit has the potential to find early success. There are simply too many factors working against Ynoa to hit the over. Daniel Norris’ strikeout rate is down to 17.1% in 2019, while his swinging strike rate is down to 7.9%. He has flashed significantly more strikeout potential in previous seasons, and that could come from his lack of use of his slider in 2019. With that being said, Norris has thrown 5+ innings in seven consecutive starts, and he has posted 5+ strikeouts in four of those games. He gets a plus matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who rank as an average team in strikeouts per at-bat on this slate. They also feature a below average team wOBA, and Norris could potentially throw a bit deeper into this game. The ballpark factor is a bit worrisome, but Norris makes a strong option on this slate.
Play $50 on Daniel Norris OVER 4.5 strikeouts and Gabriel Ynoa UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $122 (2.44x)
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