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Total Base Race – Cleveland Indians/Baltimore Orioles
The Cleveland Indians get an elite matchup against Gabriel Ynoa today. He has struggled through 15 games (6 starts) with a 5.55 xFIP and a 5.18 SIERA. He has also given up 38.1% fly ball and 20.3% HR/FB rates in those games. Furthermore, Ynoa has allowed his opponents to hit for a 37.8% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.7% soft hit rate in 2019. Surprisingly, he has been worse against right-handed batters, but he’s still allowing lefties to hit for a .237 average with a .495 slugging percentage and a .333 wOBA. He has given up a .286/.484/.339 line to his opponents at home, as well. Francisco Lindor has been playing well recently, posting a .286 average with four extra-base hits over his last 10 games. While he doesn’t own any home runs over that span, he has posted a 47% hard hit rate with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also boasts a 0.025 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. Carlos Santana has also been playing well recently, posting a .333 average with a .694 slugging percentage and a 1.123 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns five extra-base hits (four home runs) in those contests. He has found success with 42% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Santana has owns a 0.033 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. Ramirez is in a similar spot as the other two in this play, as well. He is hitting .306 with a .528 slugging percentage and a .918 OPS over his last 10 games. In those games, he owns five extra-base hits (one home run). Surprisingly, he only owns a 22% hard hit rate over the last 15 days, but he also has posted a 61% fly ball rate with a 91 MPH exit velocity over that span. He has been more powerful against right-handed pitching, as well, as he enters this game with a 0.04 ISO differential against righties. The Indians feature an implied run total of 6.5 runs, suggesting they’ll see plenty of offensive success today. Generally, the top offense on a slate owns a total base prop of 8.5 for 2x, and we can get that at 3x on Cleveland. I have no problems taking that, as well, but 6.5 total bases is entirely too low.
Play $50 on Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Jose Ramirez OVER 6.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
