Welcome to another edition of Bales’ MLB Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays and game theory thoughts for this MLB slate. You can find all of Karma staff’s cores through our MLB Premium Package. Without further ado, here’s our MLB Game Theory article!
| Pitcher | 1B/C | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
| Bauer | Vogt | Chavis | Ramirez | Bogaerts | Astros |
| Peralta | Dalbec | Altuve | Candelario | Correa | Red Sox |
| DeSclafani | Ohtani | McNeil | Devers | Torres | Tigers |
| Giolito | Bradley | Edman | Arenado | Rosario | O’Neill |
| Hendricks | Mountcastle | Solando | Flores | Baez | Bryant |
Tilt your mobile device on its side for optimal viewing
*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3-max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your MLB lineups.
MLB is arguably the most volatile of the major sports in DFS. That gives us a massive edge to focus on in tournaments. It allows us to avoid the chalk, make elite pivots, and find success in GPPs. In this article, I’ll be focusing heavily on the game theory of what I’m looking at for tonight. Keep in mind, I’ll also be outlining cash options at each position.
Pitchers
This is a bit of an odd slate with several ways you can go in cash games. My favorite route is the double spend up option. Trevor Bauer boasts a 3.69 xFIP with a 31.9% strikeout rate through 16 starts. Although he’s taken a step back this season, Bauer is a top arm in the MLB, and he’s a -174 favorite in a game set at 8 runs tonight. Freddy Peralta is the other spend-up on this slate. The former “Fastball Freddy” owns a 3.36 xFIP with a 36.4% strikeout rate through 15 games (14 starts). He’s my favorite option a -141 favorite in a game set at only 7 runs. If you’re looking to spend down at your SP2, Anthony DeSclafani and Garrett Richards are reasonable options. DeSclafani is a legitimately good pitcher in a bad matchup, while Richards is a -153 favorite tonight. Kyle Hendricks is likely to garner ownership because of the matchup, although I’m willing to avoid him as a chalk underdog.
With Bauer and Peralta garnering the majority of the ownership for $10k+ pitchers, Lucas Giolito will go overlooked. The White Sox ace enters this game with a 3.55 xFIP and a 30.9% strikeout rate through 15 starts. He’s an outstanding pivot off of the expensive chalk. Eli Morgan’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the MLB early in his career. He boasts plenty of strikeout stuff, and he’ll benefit from a matchup against the Detroit Tigers. Morgan is an extremely risky option, but he comes with tremendous upside for his price tag. Kenta Maeda and Wade LeBlanc are two more tournament options that can be considered on this slate.
Catcher/First Base
If you’re spending up at both pitcher spots tonight, you’re going to need to punt catcher. Stephen Vogt’s hitting for a .269 average with 2 extra-base hits and 2 RBIs over his last 10 games. He gets a great matchup against Wade LeBlanc and a weak St. Louis Cardinals bullpen. Essentially any cheap catcher can slide into your lineup depending on how much you need to save. If you have the ability to spend up at catcher, Gary Sanchez is an outstanding option. He’s averaging 8.9 DK points per game over his last 10 games, and he gets a plus matchup against Dylan Bundy in a hitter-friendly stadium. Salvador Perez, Yadier Molina, Christian Vazquez, and Martin Maldonado are other catchers that stick out for varying price tags tonight.
First base depends on the Boston Red Sox lineup tonight. Michael Chavis (outlined at second base) or Danny Santana is expected to lead off tonight. Whoever they choose to lead off can be used in all leagues tonight. Bobby Dalbec is another Boston player that is far too cheap. He boasts .078 wOBA and .077 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Shohei Ohtani continues to play at an elite level for the Los Angeles Angels. He’s an elite option in all leagues, assuming you can fit his price tag. Pete Alonso is another cash option. Bobby Bradley sticks out as a GPP option, getting a great matchup against Matt Manning and owning a .376 wOBA and a .311 ISO against right-handed pitching. Yuli Gurriel, Jared Walsh, and Paul Goldschmidt are all great options on this slate, as well.
Second Base
Second base may depend on if Michael Chavis is leading off for Boston tonight. Throughout his career, Chavis has been slightly more consistent against right-handed pitching, but he’s been more powerful against lefties (.236 ISO). If you have extra money at this position, Jose Altuve is an elite option in a plus matchup. He owns a .278 average with 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. Altuve’s also averaging 10.6 DK points per game at home this season. If Chavis isn’t in the lineup, Jeff McNeil is a solid salary relief option in cash games. He’s been ice cold since returning from injury, but he’s far too cheap for his talent level.
Tommy Edman’s been moved down the St. Louis Cardinals lineup because of a recent cold streak. He’s a stolen base threat in any game, though, with some power. More importantly, he gets a great matchup against Jake Faria and a terrible Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. Whit Merrifield, Jonathan Schoop, and DJ LeMahieu are two higher-priced options that can be used in GPPs. Cesar Hernandez and Kike Hernandez are mid-priced options in great matchups that boast plenty of upside for their prices. If you’re looking to spend down here, Luis Rengifo is the minimum price and can continue to be used.
Third Base
Third base is a priority spend-up position on this slate. Jose Ramirez has been cold in recent games, although he always comes with upside. He gets an elite matchup against Matt Manning, and he’s hitting for a .271 average with a .551 slugging percentage and a .889 OPS at home this season. Rafael Devers is another high-priced option that can be used. He’s averaging 10.3 DK points per game over his last 10 games, but he could see significantly less ownership than Ramirez. If you’re spending down, Jeimer Candelario makes a solid option for the Detroit Tigers. He’s expected to hit third for Detroit, making him an outstanding salary relief option for a double spend-up option at pitcher. Abraham Toro is another salary relief option that can be considered. The Houston Astros boast one of the top projected options on the slate, and Toro is a great way to get a piece of that offense.
With Ramirez and Devers garnering ownership at the top of the position, Nolan Arenado makes an elite tournament option. He’s only hitting for a .212 average over his last 10 games, but he owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs over that span. He’ll benefit from playing against a weak Arizona bullpen, as well. Gio Urshela gets a solid matchup against Dylan Bundy in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight. Last season, he owned a .378 wOBA and a .223 ISO against right-handed pitching, although he’s found slightly more success against lefties this season. Urshela will make a solid pivot directly off of Toro at this position. Yu Chang is another salary relief option that can be used in GPPs.
Shortstop
There are two elite options at the top of shortstop tonight. Xander Bogaerts is hitting for a .395 average with 6 extra-base hits, 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He’s also averaging 9.8 DK points per game at home this season. Carlos Correa has found elite success in recent games, as well, posting a .375 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.238 OPS over his last 10 games. He’ll return home tonight, where he’s averaging 10.4 DK points per game on the season. If you need to spend down at shortstop in cash games, Gleyber Torres makes the top option. He’s been struggling this season, specifically in recent games, but Torres is far too cheap for this home matchup.
Amed Rosario’s cooled off in recent games, struggling with consistency and upside over his last 10 games. He’ll return home tonight, though, where he’s hitting for a .311 average with 7 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 12 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases through 30 games. Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, and Tim Anderson are all high-priced pivots off of Bogaerts and Correa that can be used. Paul DeJong’s struggled throughout the season, but that’s kept his price tag low. With that being said, he enters this game with .072 wOBA and .083 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’ll be a cheap, low-owned way to get a piece of the St. Louis Cardinals offense tonight. Gavin Lux can also be considered at this position.
Outfield
The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros are two chalky offenses in terms of the outfield options. Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Brantley can all be used in cash games for Houston, while Myles Straw makes a lower-owned way to get a piece of their offense. Depending on who is starting for Boston, JD Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, and Alex Verdugo can all be used in this matchup (other Boston OF-eligible players are outlined elsewhere). Aaron Judge is hitting .300 with a .500 slugging percentage and a .891 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s a solid option on this slate. Juan Soto is another high-priced option that can be considered. If you need to save money at OF in cash games, the Detroit Tigers can be considered, including Nomar Mazara, Akil Baddoo, and Robbie Grossman.
The St. Louis Cardinals outfielders are interesting tonight because of the matchup against Faria and Arizona’s bullpen. Tyler O’Neill’s been struggling recently, but he boasts tremendous upside for a low price tag. Dylan Carlson is another St. Louis option that can be considered in GPPs. Giancarlo Stanton’s been heating up, posting a .313 average without much power over his last 10 games. His price tag will keep his ownership lower, but he’s an outstanding option, as well. Eddie Rosario and Mookie Betts also stick out as great tournament options on this slate.
Stacks
There are two stacks that stick out in cash games on this slate. The Houston Astros own the highest implied team total on the slate at 6.2 runs. They’ll return home and get an elite matchup against Thomas Eshelman, who’s struggled with home runs throughout his career. Houston isn’t overly cheap, though, making it difficult to stack them with two pitchers over $10k. Instead, the Boston Red Sox are likely to be the highest owned stack in cash games. They get a matchup against Danny Duffy, who’s quietly throwing at a high level. With that being said, Boston owns an implied team total of 5.9 runs. They have a few high-priced options, but they also feature plenty of solid bats against left-handed pitching below $4k.
There are two tournament stacks that stand above the rest for me tonight. The St. Louis Cardinals and the Arizona Diamondbacks. St. Louis gets a matchup against Jake Faria, who’s struggled at all levels since 2018. He owns a HR/9 north of 2.0 over his last 19 MLB games. Faria isn’t likely to throw deep into this game, giving St. Louis a matchup against Arizona’s bullpen, which ranks last in the MLB in xFIP (5.18) over the last 30 days. On the other side, St. Louis ranks third last in the league in xFIP (4.77) over that span. Wade LeBlanc will draw the start for the Cardinals. He owns an xFIP over 5.00 and a HR/9 north of 2.0 over his last 3 seasons. The biggest concern with Arizona is their terrible road struggles this season. Other stacks to consider include the New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, and Kansas City Royals.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
