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Bales’ Premium PrizePicks – MLB Player Props 5/23/19

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Josh Bell is quickly becoming one of my favorite players in the MLB, and he has been playing at a different level from most of the league recently. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .436 with a .949 slugging percentage and a 1.449 OPS. He owns 8 extra-base hits (6 home runs) and 16 RBIs over that span. Bell is also averaging 15.9 fantasy points per game in those contests. His peripherals match his elite success, as he has posted a 70% hard hit rate with a 100 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Bell gets a plus matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who has struggled with a 4.54 xFIP and a 4.95 SIERA this season. He has kept his fly balls down (25.2%), but he has also allowed a 22.6% HR/FB rate. Senzatela has allowed his opponents to hit for a 44% hard hit rate in 2019, as well. Bell is hitting fourth in the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup, and he’ll continue to see plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points in this game.

Nicholas Castellanos is in an interesting spot. He hasn’t been great recently, as he’s hitting for a .225 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .644 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted four extra-base hits (one home run) and two RBIs over that span. He has also struggled at home this season. With that being said, he has posted 53% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also gets an elite matchup against Trevor Richards, who enters this game with a 5.58 xFIP and a 5.17 SIERA. He has also allowed a ridiculous 47.8% fly ball rate to go along with a 13.8% HR/FB rate in 2019. Most importantly, the Detroit Tigers feature an implied run total of 5.0 runs, which is one of the highest on the slate. Castellanos has moved to the three hole for Detroit, and the added potential for RBIs and runs could be the difference-maker in this play.

Play $25 on Josh Bell OVER 8.0 fantasy points and Nicholas Castellanos OVER 7.0 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)

 

Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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