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The totals are set relatively high this morning, so I’m opting for a pair of unders. Gary Sanchez has been an elite fantasy option recently, as he’s hitting .268 with a .683 slugging percentage and a 1.001 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 11 RBIs in those contests. He also owns 41% hard hit and 58% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. The thing about Sanchez is that he hasn’t had a multi-hit game in over a week, and he’ll essentially need a home run or an extra-base hit with RBIs in this game to hit the over. He gets a tough matchup against Chris Sale, who struggled early this season, but has since returned to form. Sale has yet to allow more than one home run in a game in 2019, and I’m comfortable taking the under on this high of a total against an elite pitcher.
Miguel Cabrera’s total is set significantly lower, but he simply isn’t good anymore. He’s hitting .273 with a .364 slugging percentage and a .739 OPS over his last 10 games. He only owns one home run with six RBIs in those contests. Cabrera has also struggled with 30% hard hit and 27% fly ball rates to go along with a 90 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who has struggled with fly balls this season, but I’m not overly worried about the power of Cabrera. The latter brings -0.1 wOBA and -0.083 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, and he has failed to score any fantasy points in three of his last four games. He has also scored five or fewer fantasy points in each of his last five contests. Furthermore, Cabrera is hitting only .216 with four extra-base hits (two home runs) and nine RBIs through 27 road games. There’s no reason to believe he’s going to break out tonight.
Play $25 on Gary Sanchez UNDER 9.0 fantasy points and Miguel Cabrera UNDER 5.5 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
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