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Jacob deGrom has been enjoying a solid season, but he has been far from elite at home. Through eight home starts, he owns a 3.83 ERA, which is backed by a 3.64 xFIP. For comparison, his numbers drop to 2.89 and 2.92, respectively, in those categories on the road. deGrom’s strikeout rate also takes a small dip to 29.2% at home this season. He gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who rank fifth last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature roughly an average team wOBA tonight. deGrom is a -175 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. While I expect him to find success in this matchup, his total is set a bit high, as he has only scored more than 43 fantasy points in two of his last nine starts.
Most people will likely remember Masahiro Tanaka’s 67 fantasy point performance in his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays, but that game was an outlier. Excluding that game, he has scored more than 34 fantasy points in only one of his last six starts. While Tanaka will be throwing in a hitter friendly stadium tonight, his xFIP balloons to 5.14 on the road this season. His strikeout rate also drops to only 16.8% on the road, and he gets a matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who don’t strikeout at an overly high rate against right-handed pitching. This total is set a bit high for the matchup and situation, and we can play the under on Tanaka tonight.
Play $25 on Jacob deGrom UNDER 43.0 fantasy points and Masahiro Tanaka UNDER 34.0 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
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