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Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory- 5/4/21

Welcome to another edition of Sriracha’s MLB Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays at each position for the MLB Slate. You can find all of Karma staff’s cores through our MLB Premium Package. Without further ado, here are my favorite plays at each position:

 

Pitcher 1B/C 2B 3B SS OF
Jacob deGrom (rain) Freddie Freeman Ozzie Albies Alec Bohm Trea Turner Austin Meadows
Trevor Bauer Josh Bell Jake Cronenworth Jose Ramirez Fernando Tatis Jr Alex Kirilloff/Kepler
Nick Pivetta Rhys Hoskins Josh Harrison Josh Donaldson Xander Bogaerts Mitch Haniger
Oviedo/McClanahan Matt Olson Brandon Lowe Starlin Castro Jorge Polanco Kyle Schwarber
JA Happ DJ LeMahieu Jeff McNeil Maikel Franco Carlos Correa NYY

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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3-max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your MLB lineups.


Welcome to another MLB DFS Game Theory for the 2021 Season! This year we have a good amount of overlap between the NBA & MLB season, so lots of money to be made. This article will highlight my top plays at each position, and in the analysis portion of the article, we will highlight my top pitchers and stacks for the day.

What’s up guys! I’m covering GT for Sriracha today, and we have a huge slate on tap tonight. ICYMI: I took down $10,000 on Friday with my exact Core plays posted for subscribers. In fact, two of out subs took down $10K alongside me! If you are interested in my core plays tonight, you can sign up here. Now, onto the slate…

Once again on Tuesday we some sketchy weather to deal with, mainly in Philly and St. Louis. This will have major implications on the slate as Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola are throwing in those games. As of now, I’m planning on spending up for both pitcher’s on DK, and spending up for deGrom on FD, as long as that game is good to go. This could come down to a huge game theory spot if the weather is an unknown as we approach lock. This will be a good night to be tuned into Discord, as I will be updating up until lock on the weather situation. If deGrom gets axed from my pool due to weather, I will likely pivot to Bauer + Nola (if weather is good there) or Bauer + one of the mid-tier options. We have some strong mid-tier plays today — Nick Pivetta, Johan Oviedo (weather) and Shane McClanahan. Pivetta is projecting for the highest OWN% due to a matchu-up with the free-swinging Tigers. He’s fine, but he does have blowup potential and is not typically a pitcher I like to roster as chalk. Both Oviedo and McClanahan have big-time upside, and are relatively unknown to people who don’t study baseball deeply.

 

TOP STACKS

As for stacks, this is a weird big slate. With so much expensive pitching, I don’t think we see major ownership on any stacks, outside a few of the Braves guys. If I’m able to spend-up on Degrom + Bauer, I likely won’t have enough salary to jam in a full-stack so I will be focusing more on multiple two and three man stacks. The highest implied team totals are the Red Sox and Padres, and both are in good spots. Two sneakier ones I like are the Twins and Nationals. Kyle Gibson has thrown well this season, but he still hasn’t gotten a lot of strikeouts and I always feel nervous about a pitcher throwing against his former organization. Gibson pitched for Minnesota for years, and this team/coaching staff knows everything there is to know about his pitches and stuff. Ynoa has shown strikeout upside for the Braves, but his big games have come against bad teams. He’s primarily fastball/slider, and doesn’t have that third pitch to keep an offense off balance for multiple times through the order. Here are my rankings for tournaments tonight:

  1. Twins
  2. Nationals
  3. Red Sox
  4. Padres
  5. Rangers (if Happ becomes chalky)

 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

 

 

 

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