Welcome to another edition of Bales’ MLB Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays and game theory thoughts for this MLB slate. You can find all of Karma staff’s cores through our MLB Premium Package. Without further ado, here’s our MLB Game Theory article!
| Pitcher | 1B/C | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
| Jacob deGrom | Ryan Zimmerman | Ozzie Albies | Eugenio Suarez | Fernando Tatis Jr | Bryce Harper |
| Carlos Rodon | Freddie Freeman | Jean Segura | Manny Machado | Didi Gregorius | Joey Gallo |
| Pablo Lopez | Nate Lowe | Josh Harrison | Ke’Bryan Hayes | Josh Rojas | Odubel Herrera |
| Shohei Ohtani | Ryan Mountcastle | Johnny India | Kyle Seager | Alcides Escobar | Nick Castellanos |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3-max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your MLB lineups.
MLB is arguably the most volatile of the major sports in DFS. That gives us a massive edge to focus on in tournaments. It allows us to avoid the chalk, make elite pivots, and find success in GPPs. In this article, I’ll be focusing heavily on the game theory of what I’m looking at for tonight. Keep in mind, I’ll also be outlining cash options at each position.
Pitchers
We have a loaded 14 game slate on tap for Tuesday night, including a stacked pitching position. First things first, and that’s the man himself Jacob deGrom headlining this slate. He will once again be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, but he is the best pitcher in baseball and the ownership is warranted. He is coming off his “worst” start of the season in which he allowed three runs to the Braves, but added in 14 strikeouts. He is projecting for over 30 DK points, which is insane to think about. Sure, he could have a bad start, as I do think he is still playing hurt, but I don’t think it matters. He is a lock in cash game / optimal builds and is the best GPP option as well, I am simply plugging him in and moving on.
Outside of deGrom, we have some big names such as Carlos Rodon, Jose Berrios and Aaron Nola. Rodon and Berrios are squaring off in the one game with big weather concerns, and Nola draws a strikeout-prone Cubs lineup albeit in hot weather with the wind blowing out. If the game is safe to play, I expect Rodon to be highly-owned against an injured Twins lineup, and he would be my top selection for SP2 on this slate.
If looking to save money at this position, we have a few high-upside options including Pablo Lopez and Shohei Ohtani. Lopez is coming off a start in which he threw just one pitch and was ejected for hitting Ronald Acuna — meaning he should be rested up and ready to go for this showdown with the Dodgers. Everyone that reads my content knows I’m a huge Lopez fan, and he has pitched extremely consistently this season owning a 3.69 xFIP. He also gets a bump pitching at home in Miami, where he has been considerably better this season.
As for Ohtani, he really let me down in that start vs the Yankees, but he still is an elite option when factoring in upside and strikeout potential. It’s another tough match-up, but nobody in the mid-tier can match his punch out ability and he is a lock to be low-owned after that disaster of a last start.
First Base
If locking in deGrom and potentially another high-priced option at SP tonight, we are going to need some savings. The good news is, Ryan Zimmerman is in the Nationals projected lineup vs Ryan Weathers and is priced at just $2,100 on DraftKings. Dating back to the start of 2020, Zimm sports a big .237 ISO vs left-handed pitching.
Freddie Freeman takes the cake as the top spend-up, against Chad Kuhl. Kuhl has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season owning a 6.33 xFIP and allowing a .362 wOBA to left-handed batters.
Second Base
Sticking with the theme of attacking Chad Kuhl, Ozzie Albies checks in as my top-graded 2B for tonight’s slate. I wrote up Albies in yesterday’s breakdown and noted his 50% fly ball rate and 45% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Jean Segura was chalk last night in the hot Chicago weather, and we can expect more of the same tonight against Jake Arrieta. Due to the high salary of the top pitching options, he is likely the top cash game play and will be owned as such.
Josh Harrison is another Nationals player that is extremely cheap, and can be used in a mini-stack with Zimmerman against the uninspiring Ryan Weathers.
Third Base
Third is dominated by some higher-priced options in Manny Machado and Eugenio Suarez. Suarez and his Reds teammates are in one of the top spots on this slate against Kris Bubic. Bubic has yet to figure out right-handed batters at the ML-level, allowing a .224 ISO and 90 EV in the split this season. We know the Reds have some big righty power, starting with Suarez, and they are implied for north of 5.5 runs tonight.
Kyle Seager is my favorite cheap play here, against Jameson Taillon who can’t stop giving up home runs. Attacking him with power is the way to go, and Seager still sports fly ball and hard contact rates above 50% vs right-handed pitchers this season. He is one of the top one-offs on this slate in my opinion.
Shortstop
Didi Gregorius was chalky last night, and responded with a HR. As I noted above, it’s set to be hot with winds blowing out once again in Wrigley tonight, and we will likely see Didi dominate ownership in cash games. Arrieta struggles with left-handed batters, but throws primarily sinkers and that is a pitch that Gregorius himself struggles with. Perhaps making him a viable fade in large field tournaments at high ownership.
One tournament punt I’m interested in is Alcides Escobar. Yes, that Alcides Escobar. The Nationals recently acquired him from the Royals and he has been on fire since joining them. I’ve already mentioned I am fine attacking Ryan Weathers, and Escobar is projected to bat lead-off tonight for the minimum price of $2,000 on DK.
Outfield
Outfield is straightforward to me at the top, with Bryce Harper, Joey Gallo, Nick Castellanos and the Yankees guys all in amazing spots.
Harper gets Jake Arrieta, who has continue to struggle against lefties this season allowing a .375 wOBA in the split.
Gallo was my HR call last night, and he continues to be one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over the last 14 days, his hard-contact rate sits at 60% which is number one in the MLB among qualifiers.
If searching for value, Odubel Herrera is cheap and gets the same platoon advantage as Harper. He homered last night, and should be one of the higher-owned players in cash games tonight. F
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