Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory (8/11/21) - DFS Karma
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Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory (8/11/21)

Welcome to Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory. In this article, I will provide my top pitchers, bats and stacks for each day’s Main Slate. You can find all of our Core Plays through our MLB Premium Package, or you click here to join our FREE Discord channel.

 

Pitcher 1B/C 2B 3B SS OF
Corbin Burnes Trey Mancini Kolten Wong Nolan Arenado Corey Seager Nick Castellanos
Frankie Montas Cody Bellinger Max Muncy Kyle Seager Willy Adames Austin Hays
Kevin Gausman Matt Olson Brandon Lowe Rafael Devers Hoy Park Kike Hernandez 
Touki Toussaint Rowdy Tellez Ramon Urias Jeimer Candelario Paul DeJong Shohei Ohtani

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Pitchers

We have an 11 game slate on tap for Wednesday night, with some strong pitching options at the top. Corbin Burnes and Kevin Gausman are the highest-priced options on DK, and both are in strong match-ups with the Cubs and Diamondbacks respectively. Over the last 14 days, these two teams rank first and second in strikeout rates as a team (29%, 27%). Furthermore, Arizona owns just a 66 wRC+ as a team over that span. Both can be used in all formats tonight.

My favorite option on tonight’s slate is Frankie Montas. Montas has been arguably the best pitcher on this slate over the last month, pitching to a sub-3.00 SIERA with 35% strikeouts. These glowing results can be attributed to a pitch mix change, with his splitter usage increasing by around 15% over that span. Cleveland’s projected lineup sports a .302 wOBA as a team this season, increasing my interest in Montas tonight.

We have a loaded GPP-tier tonight as well with names like Marcus Stroman, Adam Wainwright, Touki Toussaint and Alek Manoah. If I were going to take a shot on one of them, I would side with Toussaint. Cincinnati’s lineup is good, but features a lot of strikeouts and we know that Touki has that K upside we chase in GPPs.

 

Stacks

There are a ton of bad pitchers on this slate with present us with plenty of stack options for tournaments. My favorite overall stack tonight is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who match up with Kyle Gibson. Gibson owns a 6.00 SIERA over the last 30 days with a higher walk rate than strikeout rate. These are exactly the types of pitchers I like to stack against, and with guys like Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger under $5K, they are a bit more affordable than usual.

Milwaukee will be the chalk stack on DraftKings should their game play against Jake Arrieta. Other top stacks include the Orioles, Tigers and Blue Jays.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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