Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks square off tonight in Arizona, one of the more home-run-friendly ballparks in the league. Both pitchers tonight are solid, but have struggled at times. Yu Darvish is especially susceptible to the long ball, allowing 2.1 HR/9. He enters tonight’s game with a 36% fly ball rate over the last 15 days, and Godley is a little bit better at 34%. Godley has lost a bit of speed on his pitches, down almost 1 MPH compared to his 12-month average. With Darvish on the mound, and after Godley’s horrible performance against the Pittsburgh Pirates, it makes sense to attack such a hitter-friendly stadium on a smaller seven-game slate. Eduardo Escobar has been torching the ball at the plate, and he has great power splits against right-handed pitching, coming into tonight’s game with a 0.113 ISO differential. Over the last 15 days, he has an averaged batted ball distance of 234 feet, an average exit velocity of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 33%, and a hard hit rate of 47%. His hard hit rate is up 9% from his 12-month average, and his distance is up 13 feet. He is the top home run recommendation. Christian Walker also has surprisingly good splits against right-handed pitching. He enters tonight’s contest with 0.046 ISO and 0.125 wOBA differentials. Most importantly, he is hitting 0.083 HR/AB. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 240 feet, an average exit velocity of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate of 64%. His hard hit rate is up double digits from his 12-month average! Walker is an extremely powerful hitter, and he looks locked in to start the 2019 campaign. Finally, take advantage of the Chicago Cubs’ power hitters, if possible! Javier Baez, despite playing shortstop, has tremendous home run upside. He is hitting 0.057 HR/AB. Over the last 15 days, his advanced statistics suggest more are to come. He has an averaged batted ball distance of 246 feet, an average exit velocity of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate of 47%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. If anyone is going to take Godley deep tonight, Baez is the best bet.
Recommended Batters: Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker, Javier Baez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Eduardo Escobar (TBA) – Arizona Diamondbacks – 3B
For a more complete analysis, see the above section. Eduardo Escobar gets the nod at the solo home run prop bet position tonight because his odds are going to be better than most. He is not typically seen as a power hitter, but his advanced statistics indicate home run potential. As long as his home run prop bet odds are better (for the bettor, of course) than both Christian Walker and Javier Baez, lock him in tonight. As a quick side note, he is also hitting second in the Diamondbacks’ lineup, so he should see an extra at-bat that some of the bottom-order hitters will not.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
This section will only be filled out if PrizePicks offers one of the above-mentioned home run prop bet recommendations. Unfortunately, they do not for tonight’s slate (as of time of posting).
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
