Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
Thomas Pannone is taking the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, and that spells all sorts of trouble for fans of strong defensive baseball games. He is currently sporting a 1.223 WHIP with 1.4 HR/9. Most importantly, however, over the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate over 65% with an average batted ball distance of 267 feet. Over the last 12 months, his fly ball rate is over 50%, so this is no fluke. Pannone is a fly ball pitcher, and against the Texas Rangers in Texas, that tends to lead to home runs. Rather than look for two Rangers and a member of the Toronto Blue Jays’ squad, roster three Rangers tonight. Justin Smoak makes for a great option considering his great ISO differential against right-handed pitching, which currently sits at 0.121. He also has a solid wOBA differential at 0.093. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 246 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a 38% fly ball rate, and an outstanding 58% hard hit rate. He is hitting fourth in the Rangers’ batting order, which may lead to an additional at-bat, as well. Joey Gallo is the obvious recommendation here, though. On the season, Gallo is hitting .266 with 11 home runs and 26 RBIs. He has 3 home runs in his last 10 games, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 261 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a 46% fly ball rate, and a 50% hard hit rate. He hits right-handed pitching slightly harder, as he currently sports a 0.054 ISO differential. Gallo has 0.09 HR/AB. Finally, take a shot on Rowdy Tellez. Tellez enters tonight’s contest with an outstanding 0.197 ISO differential and a solid 0.149 wOBA differential. Over the last 15 days, his average batted ball distance is 244 feet, his average exit velocity on those batted balls is 99 MPH, and his hard hit rate is 63%. His fly ball rate is only decent at 33%, but with Pannone surrounding fly balls frequently, that should see an uptick in tonight’s game. Overall, one of these players should end up on the better end of a missed Pannone fastball.
Recommended Batters: Justin Smoak, Joey Gallo, Rowdy Tellez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Joey Gallo (TBA) – Texas Rangers – OF
Joey Gallo is a home run hitting machine, and the Texas Rangers are projected to score 4.8 runs via Vegas tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays. Gallo has solid ISO splits against right-handed pitching, and the weather is expected to be over 74 degrees. As far as advanced statistics are concerned, the numbers add up in Gallo’s favor (see above). Both Justin Smoak and Rowdy Tellez should have wider odds to hit a home run, but Gallo has better numbers. Always, follow the numbers.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
This section will only be filled out if PrizePicks offers one of the above-mentioned home run prop bet recommendations. Unfortunately, they do not for tonight’s slate (as of time of posting).
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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