Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Last night, Gary Sanchez took until the last inning of the game to hit a home run, but it happened. Tonight, let’s go back to the New York Yankees. David Hess is scheduled to take the mound for the Baltimore Orioles, and he is currently allowing 2.3 HR/9. The Yankees are -250 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 6.0. The weather is expected to be decent at around 70 degrees, and the wind is blowing slightly toward left field. In his last two games, Hess is allowing an average batted ball distance of 260 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 60%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. After three home runs last night, the Yankees will continue to produce tonight. It isn’t fancy, but it is effective. In fact, this recommendation is so boring that two of the three recommended players from last night will be recommended tonight. As indicated in the last article, both Luke Voit and Sanchez have negative power splits against right-handed pitching, but both possess a HR/AB over 0.06. Aaron Hicks also has negative power splits against right-handed pitching, but possesses quite a bit of power. The advanced metrics for Voit and Sanchez were displayed in the last article, and they are solid. Hicks, over the last 15 days, is averaging 197 feet per batted ball, an average exit velocity of 88 MPH, a fly ball rate of 40%, and a hard hit rate of 30%. Trust the process here.
Recommended Batters: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks
Home Run Prop Bet:
Luke Voit (+270) – New York Yankees – 1B
Gary Sanchez hit a home run last night. Luke Voit has slim odds, but for good reason. With David Hess on the mound, someone is going to hit a home run. Voit is hitting second, so he will have plenty of at-bats.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Gary Sanchez (9.0, OVER)
Last night, Gary Sanchez was set at 7.5 fantasy points, and tonight, he is set at 9.0. In the ninth inning, he hit a home run. If he hits another home run tonight, he will hit value on PrizePicks again. Even if not, he has ample RBI opportunity.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
