Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Ross Detwiler is a great pitcher to attack, but it makes little sense to simultaneously attack Aaron Nola, and Monkey Knife Fight now requires that a player from both teams be used in all lineups. Thus, it makes more sense to target both Dylan Bundy and Thomas Pannone tonight. Bundy is allowing 2.1 HR/9, and in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH and a hard hit rate over 50%. Pannone, on the other hand, is allowing 1.4 HR/9, and in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH and a fly ball rate of 50%. Vegas has this game set at 10 total runs, and the Blue Jays are minor betting favorites. Begin with Bo Bichette, the most recent call-up for the Blue Jays, as he is hitting over .400 in his last 10 games with 1 home run and 2 RBIs. He is expected to leadoff tonight, and he has great power for his position. With a 0.044 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and solid advanced metrics, albeit in limited at-bats, Bichette is worth the risk. Next, move down to Lourdes Gurriel. Gurriel has been a consistent power bat for the Blue Jays all season long. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .250 with 0 home runs and 1 RBI, but on the season, he has 0.059 HR/AB. He enters tonight’s game with positive 0.165 ISO and 0.081 wOBA differentials, and in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH. With a 36% fly ball rate and 50% hard hit rate, he has definite home run upside. Finally, round out the lineup with Renato Nunez of the Orioles. Nunez is hitting 0.057 HR/AB, and he enters the game with 0.019 ISO and 0.014 wOBA differentials against left-handed pitching. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. That has translated somewhat nicely to a .262 batting average and 2 home runs over his last 10 games.
Recommended Batters: Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel, Renato Nunez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Renato Nunez (TBA) – Baltimore Orioles – 1B
Renato Nunez has the best advanced metrics tonight, and despite being on the team that is expected to lose, he makes for the best solo bet. Thomas Pannone struggles against right-handed batters, and his 7.89 ERA on the road will come into play.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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