Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Chris Sale is on the mound for the Boston Red Sox tonight, which makes the Los Angeles Angels a terrible team to target for Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest, but Mike Trout is always a worthwhile consideration. He is hitting almost 0.100 HR/AB, and in his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 5 home runs. Even with one of the league’s best pitchers on the mound, Trout can be rostered. On the other hand, Dillon Peters is on the mound for the Los Angeles Angels, and Vegas has this game set at 11 total runs. The Red Sox are -240 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.8, the highest on the slate. Mookie Betts is expected to leadoff, and he has quite a bit of home run potential. On the season, he is hitting 0.043 HR/AB, and despite struggling over his last 10 games, his advanced metrics are great. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate over 30%. He is also hitting over .300 at home this season compared to .259 on the road, so being in Boston should help his case. Finally, round out the lineup with J.D. Martinez. Martinez enters tonight’s game with 0.283 ISO and 0.172 wOBA differentials, and he is hitting 0.058 HR/AB. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .350 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. Peters offers little resistance on the mound to Martinez’s power, making him a lock tonight.
Recommended Batters: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Mike Trout
Home Run Prop Bet:
J.D. Martinez (+160) – Boston Red Sox – OF
J.D. Martinez has been squaring the ball up well at the plate of recent, and his advanced metrics are the best of the three recommendations. Mike Trout is not worth a solo bet against a pitcher of Chris Sale’s stature, and Mookie Betts’ home run odds are not wide enough to warrant betting on him over Martinez.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Mookie Betts (OVER 10.5)
Mookie Betts is playing in Fenway Park against Dillon Peters. He has home run upside, but he does not need a home run to hit the over on PrizePicks. As a leadoff hitter in a game where the Boston Red Sox are expected to score almost seven runs, Betts should see ample opportunity for fantasy point accumulation.
Mike Trout (OVER 7.0)
Bet on Mike Trout over seven fantasy points every time it is set this low. Chris Sale is a great pitcher, but Trout is almost matchup-proof.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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