Jason’s Jacks – MLB Home Run Prop Bets 4/18/19 - DFS Karma
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Jason’s Jacks – MLB Home Run Prop Bets 4/18/19

With The Grain Prop Bet:

Justin Bour (+380) – Los Angeles Angels – 1B

This was a difficult decision because Kole Calhoun also makes for a great home run prop bet tonight (bonus bet!). However, Bour most likely comes with a little bit more upside due to his potentially wider odds. Felix Hernandez is on the mound tonight for the Seattle Mariners, and he is currently allowing 1.5 HR/9. The weather in Los Angeles tonight is going to be fantastic, and the entire team should take advantage of this great situation (DFS alert!). Bour, specifically, has an average batted ball distance of 234 feet over the last 15 days, a fly ball rate of 42%, an average exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a hard hit rate of 42%. His distance is up 25 feet from his 12-month average, his exit velocity is up 2 MPH, and his hard hit rate is up 3%. His recent batted ball luck indicator suggests he has been rather unlucky at the plate to start the season, which means his sub-par numbers (batting average, home runs, RBIs, etc.) will start to climb soon. As an added bonus, Bour has a 0.124 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, so the extra power is in play tonight.


Against The Grain Prop Bet:

Mike Zunino (+400) – Tampa Bay Rays – C

We are going right back to Mike Zunino tonight! Unfortunately, last night, despite recording three hits and two doubles, Zunino failed to homer. Tonight, he gets another great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles and Andrew Cashner. Cashner is allowing 1.4 HR/9, only striking out 5.2 batters per nine innings, and his WHIP is up at 1.641. On top of all that, over the last 15 days, his average distance on batted balls is up 29 feet and his hard hit rate is up 16%. Cashner does not look good to start the season. Zunino, on the other hand, as outlined in yesterday’s article, has just been getting unlucky at the plate. He has plus ISO and wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, the implied run total for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight is five, and his advanced statistics suggest home run upside. He has an averaged batted ball distance of 233 feet over the last 15 days, his fly ball rate is 57%, his average exit velocity is 93 MPH, and his hard hit rate is 46%. The home runs will come. Continue to make this bet until his advanced statistics start to fade, or he starts to pay off.


*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Justin Bour and Mike Zunino available, they will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*


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