Welcome everyone to our Lineup Optimizer strategy article for 5/3/22. This is a new article I will be doing daily that discusses the stacks and players the optimizer is popping for today’s slate. We are very blessed to have out optimizer powered by SaberSim — and you can get access by clicking HERE. Let’s get into it…
Today we have a huge 11 game slate on tap. I typically play the smaller-field, single entry tournaments on DraftKings and that’s the contest I’m going to be building for tonight. I’m actually going to focus on even smaller-field than I did yesterday, which is where my ROI is the best personally. Anything between 10-75 people is my preferred contests. A lot of new users want to chase the big payouts, but I feel these contests are best tailored to my game and are much easier to win and profit consistently.
If you read my content you know I play a very tight pitcher pool and today my favorite option is Joe Ryan. I locked him in, and manually added higher exposure to Brandon Woodruff, Michael Kopech and Christian Javier as my SP2 options. I then locked in Austin Meadows who is my favorite bat tonight — and ran 500 linueps. You’ll see the stack exposures below, we ended up with Detroit way ahead of the field and Boston, the Angels and Tampa Bay over 20% as well. So let’s look at the match-ups…
The clear highest-owned team here is the Detroit Tigers, which I am in agreement with them being a top stack tonight. They match up with Bryse Wilson and a pretty bad Pirates bullpen. Wilson has struggled in the big leagues the last few seasons striking out just 14% of batters and allowing above-average power to both sides of the plate. He is especially bad to left-handed batters, but given the state of the Pirates pen I am good with a full-stack here and I don’t think you need to isolate one side of the plate. It also fits well seeing as I’ve locked in Meadows. Vegas agrees they are in a good spot as well — their team total is up over half a run since open.
Boston and Los Angeles come in pretty close in ownership, and between the two I much prefer the Angels side. I’ve never been a huge Noah Syndergaard fan, but he’s been good enough this season I don’t see any reason to go above the field on an 11 game slate. LA draws Michael Wacha who has always given up power and is walking a ton of batters this season. Given the control issues, it’s tough to one-off guys here seeing as the could walk so I would want at least three batters in my stack.
NOTE: DETOIT’S GAME HAS BEEN PPD SO I AM PIVOTING TO THE MILAWUKEE BREWERS ARE MY TOP OVERALL STACK!
In conclusion, I agree with simulations that the Tigers are a top stack tonight and they are reasonably affordable as well. I would likely select my favorite five batters from their lineup and find whichever three man stack fits best in with the remaining top stacks.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)