Well, we didn’t start this article’s debut the way we wanted. We lost the bet last night with a horrible beat. Chris Bassitt hit the over quite quickly. Max Friend entered the sixth inning with only 4 strikeouts, and he recorded 2 strikeouts in his final inning to go over. It’s one of my worst beats in quite some time, but that’s what happens with props sometimes. We’re moving onto today, where we get some value on the arms in the Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles game. I’ll break down my favorite bet below!
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2/2 More or Less – Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
Joe Ryan over 5.5 strikeouts
Ryan looks to be one of the budding stars in the MLB, as he’s enjoying an outstanding start to his season. Through 4 starts, he boasts a 3-1 record with a 1.17 ERA. Although his 3.28 xFIP suggests some regression, that’s still a great number, especially for such a young arm.
Ryan boasts a 30.1% strikeout rate, which is nearly identical to his 30% last season. He changed his pitch mix slightly early this season, featuring his slider significantly more than in 2021. That results in more swings and misses, suggesting he could see a small boost to his strikeout rate as the season progresses.
He’s recorded 6+ strikeouts in 2 of 3 games with 6+ innings (80+ pitches) this season. Ryan gets a great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles tonight, as well. They’ve struggled with strikeouts against right-handed pitching, as they rank seventh in the MLB in strikeout rate against that handedness.
This is arguably the best matchup for Ryan early this season, and his odds sit significantly over 5.5 on sportsbooks.
Bruce Zimmermann over 4.5 strikeouts
Zimmermann’s in an interesting spot, as he’s throwing at an elite level this season. With that being said, I don’t personally believe he’s an elite arm. His advanced metrics support his early success, but it’s tough to believe that success will continue for very long.
Zimmermann’s found strikeout success this season, though, recording 5+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts. I also outlined this bet as one of my favorites on Bet Karma tonight, as well.
The southpaw gets a great matchup against the Minnesota Twins, which is what I’ll be attacking tonight. They strike out at one of the higher rates in the MLB against left-handed pitching, and we’ve seen Zimmermann get plenty of whiffs this season. This number is set slightly low, and I love the pairing with Ryan over 5.5 strikeouts.
Bet Joe Ryan “more than” 5.5 strikeouts and Bruce Zimmermann “more than” 4.5 strikeouts to win 2.5x your buy-in